Replacing 1m petrol cars with EVs could cut Australia’s reliance on foreign fuel by 1bn litres a year | Electric vehicles
Australia could reduce its reliance on foreign fuel by more than 1 billion liters a year if it replaced 1 million petrol cars with electric vehicles, as experts say increasing EV adoption is part of ensuring the country’s long-term economic security.
Hussein Dia, professor of transport technology and sustainability at Swinburne University of Technology, said electric vehicles could play a meaningful role in advancing Australia’s energy sovereignty and contribute to the national net zero emissions target.
“Each EV that replaces this vehicle effectively eliminates fuel demand and instead largely shifts energy consumption to domestically produced electricity,” Dia said.
“This reduces exposure to global oil price shocks and increases the resilience of the transportation system. We don’t want to experience the same thing every few years.”
A typical petrol car traveling 15,000 km per year can consume roughly 1,150 liters of fuel, meaning “even moderate EV penetration can make a noticeable difference,” Dia said.
Replacing 1 million internal combustion engine cars with electric vehicles will not happen quickly. Today, only 420,000 electric vehicles are on the road out of a national fleet of approximately 20 million cars, or roughly 2%.
Diesel and gasoline cars consume approximately 25 billion liters of fuel per year; Therefore, replacing half of all vehicles with electric versions will reduce annual consumption by approximately 12 billion liters.
Dia emphasized that these are illustrative examples of the important role that increased adoption of electric vehicles can play in making the country more resilient to future energy shocks.
“These are big questions, but if there is a will then I think it can be done,” Dia said.
According to MotorMouth, the US-Israeli war against Iran has triggered a global energy shock that has sent unleaded oil prices in Australia’s major east coast cities to $2.30 per litre, or 30-40 cents higher in just two weeks.
Alison Reeve, energy and climate change program manager at the Grattan Institute, said this year’s energy crisis could trigger a major shift in the way Australians and policymakers view electric vehicles, with diesel prices pushing towards $2.65 a liter or higher in regional areas.
New figures from the Australian Automobile Association have shown that petrol and diesel cars accounted for a record low two in three vehicle sales in the final three months of last year; this was down from 70% in the September quarter.
Oil prices in major cities on the east coast are up 15-20% since the beginning of the month.
A study covering Scandinavian countries found that a 1% increase in gasoline prices was associated with an average 0.85% increase in EV sales, and that the rate of EV adoption was much more sensitive to gasoline prices than electricity costs.
Climate Change Authority chief executive Matt Kean said the CCA had recommended the electrification of transport would reduce emissions and Australians’ exposure to global oil prices.
“Events make these recommendations look more and more forward-thinking by the day,” Kean said.
“March could see a record month for EV sales and it would not be surprising to see this momentum maintained as the shockwaves from the Middle East will not be easily forgotten by drivers.”
In this context, talk of the government potentially reducing electric vehicle incentives in the upcoming budget comes at the worst time, Reeve said.
“We want to respond to the problem in a way that we don’t have the same problem in the future,” he said.
“You can be assured that there will be geopolitical shocks over the next few years, and these will always impact oil and oil prices.”
