Reserve Bank board still looking for yesterday’s news

While deciding to rely on another interest rate deduction, the reserve bank seems to be waiting to find out what the past is. Michael Pascoe reports.

I don’t know where to start with six of the Nine RBA board members, those who want to wait for another meeting, so that the Statistics Office (ABS) may think about what happened three months ago. They don’t understand the present time, so forget about the future.

The same six does not believe in RBA’s own predictions. Funly, they will rely on predictions only after the correct proved. This is an important part of why they did not reduce the rates yesterday – they want the bank’s forecasts to be approved by ABS when the June quarter CPI, which will be published on July 30th.

However, if you are a senior RBA observer with a twisted sense of humor, the main reason for not being cut was the way of interpreting a few parts of the monthly tized figures when I said they had ignored the monthly rifle figures.

This is true. RBA card, saying that monthly CPI figures are garbage and cannot be trusted – “We have to wait for sure what the three -month figures are” – at the same time says the rates cannot be cut because the monthly figure is slightly higher than they expect.

Ignore the general numbers that indicate that inflation is in the target area, but scare the unreliable reading of the purchasing price (as claimed) of the purchasing price of durable goods.

What about air?

I imagine how six anonymous people understand the air report about night news. Most of us are greatly ignoring what the air people say about today’s weather, we focus on the prediction of tomorrow to decide whether they will take an umbrella in the morning. Instead, RBA Six makes the decision of the umbrella of tomorrow, depending on the raining today. Or, more likely, yesterday.

Yeah, folks, pathetic. And when you separate some of the supportive statements in the statement of the Board, especially the “appearance remains uncertain”. This is in the “Shit Sherlock” category.

I was almost upset about the Governor Michele Bullock, who faced the media conference yesterday afternoon. Was he one of the six nerve nells, those who had no courage to have conviction or one of the three people who wanted to cut now, maybe

RBA had to be in front of the game, right to catch up with the past forever?

If there were one of the three people, the June quarter CPI was not a bad surprise, but at the next meeting, promising a ratio deduction at the next meeting.

Oh, the future is uncertain until the past.

Don’t you trust CPI?

And then the semi -hearted turning in the monthly rifle figures makes them a minute, but uses them as an excuse for the next fence to sit. No, the pensions are not as robust as the three -month version, but it is much more useful to point to the direction, not three months ago, not three months ago, but much more useful to provide an idea of ​​what is happening at the moment.

In addition, without entering the nonsense of the bank, which ignores the actual task, the title CPI goes with a “cut average” measures that are less reliable to show their turning points.

Curious Status of RBA Dogs

Here, the most dodggari part of the expression of the board using the monthly numbers he rejected as an excuse:

“The last month of CPI indicator data made it thought that the June quarter inflation would be widely appropriate with estimates, but they were slightly stronger than expected in the margin. Cash rate shows that the economic conditions less than five months are expected, the Board has been eagerly expected to continue to reach 2.5.

As explained in the Media Conference, the data that leaves six people holding pearls are home construction and durable goods prices. The Board still thinks it will be good, but perhaps, maybe … Because six of them do not trust the bank’s ability to predict anything.

There are other things that will not cause inflation, such as the usual repetition of various excuses to ignore the reality of the labor market. My favorite is the Bank’s “Business Contact”.

The Board statement repeated that “various indicators show that the labor market conditions remain strict”.

And “labor reduction measures are relatively low, and business surveys and contact show that the existence of labor is still a restriction for a number of employers.”

Oh, back up me. Ask whether there is a shortage of labor worth trying to operate and the answer will always be “yes ..

And even though it is a usual rabbit in productivity, no one wants to say that the shortage of labor force that increases wages is a driving force for the enterprise to invest in more productivity. The increase in productivity has not increased because the job lacks vision, ability, incentive and long -term view to invest to remove it.

But I’m going to the subject.

More pairs of conversations

In the Governor Media Conference, there was a ready line about the divided view: “Reasonable people may have different views.”

It has the same value as to say that the future is uncertain.

The Board said, “There is a risk of delaying expenditures while waiting for more clarity from the perspective of households and companies.”

Nobody seriously suggests that Trumpy is a surprise, contrary to his future; All disadvantaged.

Economy 101 thinks that monetary policy is working with a major delay. In the real world, in the present world, people show that only 10 percent of those who are mortgaged, as shown by banks on Monday, have the opportunity to reduce their repayments.

In the real world, the first two -rate decorations had everything.

However, let’s wait to see how weak the economy can take before correcting the rates.

RBA reduces the interest rate with real wages due to its falling again