Retail holiday hiring to hit lowest level in at least 15 years, NRF says
Shoppers carry bags at Broadway Plaza on Monday, December 16, 2024 in Walnut Creek, California, United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release personal spending figures on December 20.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Retailers’ holiday hiring is expected to total between 265,000 and 365,000 this year, the National Retail Federation said Thursday, the lowest number of seasonal workers in at least 15 years.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay said on the retail trade group’s conference call that hiring expectations “reflect a softening and slowing labor market.” The retail trade group said it was a significant drop from a year ago, when retailers hired 442,000 seasonal workers.
NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said some companies may have hired seasonal workers early to support sales events in October, but retailers are largely trying to limit their spending to manage higher costs from tariffs.
The major industry group’s forecast offers the latest insight into the job market as a record government shutdown continues, leading to fewer government reports on economic data such as unemployment and inflation. This has led companies and economists to rely on data from private companies or organizations instead.
Earlier on Thursday, job placement company Challenger, Gray and Christmas said layoff announcements in October rose to 153,074, up 183% from September and 175% from the same month the previous year. This was the highest for any October since 2003, making 2025 the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.
Meanwhile, payroll processing company ADP reported a net job gain of 42,000 in October, reversing two consecutive months of losses in the private sector.
Higher spending, lower hiring
NRF is optimistic that holiday spending will be strong despite low seasonal headcount. Stating that it expects holiday spending to reach a record level between 1.1 trillion and 1.2 trillion dollars from November 1 to December 31, the organization stated that the total will exceed 1 trillion dollars for the first time.
This represents annual growth of 3.7% to 4.2% over the previous holiday season; a slight decrease from last year’s holiday sales growth rate of 4.3%. NRF’s estimate excludes auto dealerships, gas stations and restaurants.
Despite low consumer confidence, prolonged government shutdowns, “on-again, off-again tariffs” and price sensitivity from inflation, consumers are defying expectations and continuing to spend, Shay said.
“To be fair, it was a bit of a surprise considering where we thought we might be in April,” he said.
He said the trade group predicts that dynamic will continue into the key holiday shopping season. He said households often cut back at other times of the year or other parts of the budget to make it festive time.
Even as consumers continue to spend, the retail industry is taking a cautious stance on hiring; This is also reflected in NRF’s estimates for seasonal workers. This is the fourth-slowest year-to-date year for retail hiring since at least 2000, trailing only 2009, 2010 and 2012 after several years following the Great Recession.
Mathews told CNBC in an interview that the slow hiring environment boils down to one word: uncertainty.
“The one thing you know businesses do when they’re in uncertain environments is put things on hold,” he told CNBC in an interview.
On NRF’s conference call on Thursday, Mathews said the U.S. economy does not need to create as many jobs as it used to because of demographic and policy changes, including the retirement of Baby Boomers and President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration.
Still, he said companies’ level of hiring and investment will be an important indicator to watch next year.
Right now, he said, the influx of investment in AI is “a huge boon for the economy.” But he added that “this may be covering up a few cracks.”
“We need to keep a close eye on how businesses are feeling and what the environment of uncertainty is,” he said.
