Rebuffed Burnham can return to honing his stature and attack lines | Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham, whose return to Westminster appears to have been blocked, will return on Monday to two roles to which he has devoted his time in recent years: being mayor of Manchester and annoying Keir Starmer.

The latter is a part-time and unofficial role, but it is remarkable how Burnham manages to thrust herself into the media spotlight when her party’s leader falls on hard times.

As leader of the opposition, Starmer has suffered in 2021 from Boris Johnson’s brief but powerful “vaccine surge” at the polls, while Burnham has spoken at so many low-key events at the party’s annual conference that even her aides have lost count.

Burnham’s own stated role at the meeting in Brighton, 250 miles from his mayoral base, was to offer a range of policy ideas while also reminding anyone who would listen that – to the deep disappointment of those around Starmer – he was indeed a Labor official wielding power.

Fast forward to last fall’s conference and Burnham was popping up everywhere again. His flurry of events started with this. an interview Burnham cheerfully described how some Labor MPs contacted her over the summer to ask if she would try to replace Starmer.

Despite Burnham pledging loyalty to the prime minister, even his close allies did not doubt that his decision to formally seek permission to stand as a candidate in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election was nothing more than the first stage of a possible fight.

The prime minister’s allies spoke harshly on Sunday about “Andy Burnham’s ambition” being at the heart of the plan, while the mayor’s supporters argue that Starmer’s poor personal poll ratings mean Labor must change course if it is to avoid a government led by Nigel Farage.

So what’s next? Although Burnham will be aggrieved by the swift and thoroughly orchestrated cancellation of her plans by Number 10, she is able to re-establish herself in the role of hypothetical heir, king of the water, ship of hope rather than bearer of mundane reality.

This also includes avoiding having to fight a by-election in which Labor now faces a political street fight against Reform England, the Greens and possibly a pro-Gaza independent candidate, despite the 13,000-plus majority held by departing MP Andrew Gwynne.

The news that charismatic Green leader Zack Polanski will not survive removes some of the Green threat, but the party remains optimistic about its chances and could at least dilute Labor’s vote enough to see it lose.

Burnham can now watch all this from the mayor’s office, ready to brief the media on what difference his local popularity would make in the event of a loss to his allies Labor.

While some of Burnham’s appeal to Labor MPs was a product of his absence from Westminster, as a mayor he established a left-leaning, if at times vague, ethos; This was certainly a departure from his philosophy as an MP, when he twice stood unsuccessfully as Labor leader in 2010 and 2015.

As set out in a Guardian opinion piece just last week, what Burnham calls “Manchesterism” is a growth-based vision that combines government investment and intervention with wholesale devolution; The best example of this is the economic situation of the region. bee networkAn integrated travel system that includes trains, buses, trams and cycle routes.

Whether this, combined with Burnham’s low-key, easy-going charisma, will be enough to flip Labor’s national vote is a question we don’t yet have an answer to.

But with the general election not until mid-2029 and Starmer showing little sign of improvement, we may get it at some point.