Tensions between Saudis and Emiratis over future of Yemen reach boiling point | Yemen

Tensions between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia over the future of Yemen and the imminent possibility of declaring an independent southern state have reached boiling point, with Saudi Arabia accusing the UAE of threatening its future security.

The conflict has the potential to spark a civil war in southern Yemen and also spill over into other disputes, including Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where the two countries often find themselves supporting opposing sides. Yemen may yet become the only arena where two wealthy Gulf states compete for political influence, control of shipping routes and commercial access.

The UAE has been dealing with Yemen for years due to its support for the separatist Southern Transitional Council.

Many observers, including diplomats in Riyadh, had assumed that the UAE (generally thought of as the smaller but ideological partner) would back down and tell the STC to delay or cancel its plan to declare independence and instead settle for negotiations for greater autonomy or more seats on Yemen’s coalition government body, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC).

Saudi Arabia had always viewed Yemen as under its protection; He first tried to defeat Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the north with a widely criticized bombing campaign in 2015, then turned to diplomacy under international pressure to try to reconcile the Houthis with the UN-recognised government in Aden.

But last month, the UAE crossed several supposed red lines in Yemen, leading the Saudis to bomb vehicles docked at the Yemeni port of Mukalla. Riyadh clearly said that the vehicles were destined for STC use and came from an Emirati port.

Saudi Arabia said: “The Kingdom emphasizes that any threat to its national security is a red line, and the kingdom will not hesitate to take all necessary steps and measures to counter and neutralize any such threat.”

However, the UAE has been quietly evaluating commercial opportunities in Yemen for years. Capitalizing on the genuine and popular desire to restore the independence the south had before its unification with the north in 1990, the UAE chose STC as its intermediary.

It was a very smart bet. STC was finally recognized as a real player when it took part in PLC in 2019.

Sidelined for years in UN peace efforts, STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi gradually became known in the West and was allowed to attend events such as the UN general assembly.

But the STC, fueled by long-standing cultural and economic grievances with the north, was never satisfied with federalist solutions and still felt sidelined in the PLC.

This month, the STC seized the opportunity and sent its forces to Hadhramaut, the largest governorate in the south.

With its sudden expansion eastward, the STC controlled almost all of the territory of the former province of South Yemen, including its most productive oil fields.

After capturing Hadhramaut, it was relatively easy to take al-Mahra, the easternmost province.

This came as a serious shock to Saudi Arabia, which has since put diplomatic pressure on Abu Dhabi to demand the withdrawal of the STC.

In a fierce diplomatic battle, Riyadh has sought to isolate the UAE and the STC, making it clear that even if the STC stands on its own, southern Yemen will never progress beyond a microstate lacking international recognition.

So far, the UAE is not yielding. The withdrawal of the few remaining UAE counter-terrorism forces in Yemen, announced on Tuesday, is of no consequence as the UAE’s support for the STC continues.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist, portrays the UAE’s defense of the STC as almost a litmus test of the UAE’s character. He wrote of

Equally patriotic statements come from Riyadh. Farea al-Muslimi, a fellow on Yemen and the broader Gulf at the Chatham House think tank, leaves little doubt about the magnitude of what may be at stake.

“After years of indirect competition through local proxies, the dispute now appears to be moving towards a more direct conflict, with Saudi Arabia openly accusing the UAE of actions along its southern border that threaten its national security.” he said.

“The conflict reflects fundamental disagreements between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over the future political structure of Yemen and the balance of influence there. In particular, the UAE – despite greater geographical distance – has pursued a more interventionist and experimental approach on the ground.

“Tensions between the two countries have been rising for years. These actions suggest that the situation has entered a particularly dangerous phase. This development also evokes disturbing parallels with the 2017 Gulf crisis involving Qatar, when Saudi Arabia and the UAE coordinated a major diplomatic rupture that has destabilized regional relations for years.”

Muslimi added that the Houthis “are likely to take advantage of the growing rift between their two main enemies, observing that their former coalition partners, who fought jointly and failed to defeat them, are now turning against each other.”

Western governments, taking their leadership from Washington, have shown little willingness to publicly criticize the UAE in Sudan; In Yemen, their sympathies will be towards Saudi Arabia and the preservation of a unitary state.