Russia to remain Indias No 1 crude oil supplier: Analysts
New Delhi, October 5 (PTI), India’s crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but despite the pressure of preventing trade in Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine, the country continued to take into account more than one third of the country’s total oil purchases.
In September, India’s raw imports were approximately 4.7 million barrels per day, an increase of 2,20,000 BPDs per month and the annual fixed.
Russian crude oil continued to be the only largest supplier and contributed to approximately 1.6 million BPD – 34 percent share. However, this showed that the preliminary data of the Global Trade Analysis firm KPler was about 1.60,000 BPD in the first eight months of 2025.
“Despite the dip, the most economical feed stadium for Indian refinery is among the most economic feed stadium options for Indian refinery,” KPLER Chief Research Analyst (Refinery and Modeling) said, “Despite the bottom of Russian barrels, high GPW (gross product value) margins and discounts by alternatives.” He said.
Iraq was the second largest crude oil supplier of India at about 8.81.115 BPD, which was followed by Saudi Arabia and the BAE 5,94.152 BPD in 6.03.471 BPD. The United States was India’s fifth largest supplier.
Russia, in 2022 after the Battle of the Ukraine broke out of traditional resources such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and became India’s best crude oil supplier.
As some Western countries avoided Russian purchases, Moscow offered upright discounts and asked Indian refineries to increase purchases to meet increasing domestic demand and secure cheaper barrels. Russian oil share rose to 40 percent from 1 percent to 40 percent before the Ukrainian War.
For more than three years after Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, Russian did not approve of the purchase of Russian crude oil, which has been converted into fuels such as the US or international organs, gasoline and diesel.
In July, six months passed as his presidency, US President Donald Trump first threatened Indian imports to reproduce the new Delhi to reduce Russian oil purchases.
In August, while avoiding similar measures against China, another major buyer of Russian oil, contributed to the current 25 percent task, brought 25 percent more tariffs to the imports of US Indian goods.
As the fuel demand increases during the festival season, Russian oil will remain the center of the Indian diet.
“It is likely that Russian barrels are likely to remain the core of the import mixture of the Russian barrels, but the refinerers give more importance to diversification in the Middle East, America and Africa.” He said.
He waited for the Russian spotlights of India to remain a little higher in October-December in October-December compared to the previous quarter.
“Nevertheless, the downward system of Russia’s downward system, raw exports will remain healthy and the discounts to support the flows can be higher again.”
In October-December, the current flows of Russian imports of 1.6-1.8 million BPDs seem “more realistic”, and market dynamics (higher discounts) are updated unless significantly changed in favor of Russia.
A rise factor for India’s Russian raw imports is the expected re -exports of Northern Iraqi raw exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan Port. Türkiye, as the EU sanctions have become more tightened since January 2026, is likely to flow in Asia if the relocated barrels will flow into Russian raw purchase – 3,50,000 BPD.
“Russia-India raw relationship is now more about balance than barrels. India is unlikely to move away from Russian materials in the medium term. Russian barrels are still priced under most of the other classes and more narrow discounts than 10-20 USD per barrel, refinerers, refineries, refineries, refiners, tables, tables, tables.
Although there is a stronger pressure for diversification, the Russian crude oil center remains.
“Supply chains are embedded, the term agreements are locked and the contracts are typically signed 6-10 weeks before the arrival. The cable of everything that takes time. In practice, Indian refineries are slowly expanding to increase energy security, continuity and flexibility, not to change Russia in the short term.”
