Russia-Ukraine peace and the Putin factor

Ukrainian peace talks may be “95% complete,” but Europe knows the final hurdle is not borders; Vladimir Putin. Catherine Wilson reports.

EARLIER THIS WEEK US President Donald Trump claimed that Ukraine peace negotiations were continuing “Almost 95 percent completed”. Later, the Russian state’s angry accusation that Ukraine had carried out a drone attack on one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residences came before Putin rallied troops for “victory” in Ukraine in his New Year’s speech. There is the Putin factor to consider in both Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s security dynamics.

“He is unique” Doctor Anton Shekhovtsov In the statement made by Russian President Vladimir Putin from the Department of International Relations of Central European University during his phone call from Vienna; As a Ukrainian born in Sevastopol, Crimea, Dr. Shekhovtsov is in a position to know this well.

We discuss the importance of Putin’s individual power dynamics in the invasion of Ukraine and the escalation of Russia’s hybrid war across Europe.

Shekhovtsov said:

“There was no demand from the Russian community to implement an all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This was Putin’s decision, and I can say that it was not initially supported by a large part of the population.”

About four years later, US-led peace talks The renewed crisis in late November began with optimistic statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but broader European doubts about Russia’s commitment to peace remain. Last month, as Zelensky hinted he might consider abandoning his bid to join NATO, the US made an offer to the beleaguered country security guarantees For a period of 15 years. Primarily European ‘Coalition of Volunteers’ He also proposed establishing a multinational force to increase field security in Ukraine.

However, it seems unlikely that either side will give ground on the two most controversial issues, Russia’s territorial issue. allegations to Ukraine Donbas region and the fate of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which is now under Russian control. a Ukrainian people questionnaire According to a survey conducted in December, 76 percent of respondents said they thought it would be unacceptable to recognize Russia’s ownership of Ukrainian territory in exchange for an end to the conflict.

Any notions that Putin would make concessions in the peace talks were cast aside just before the New Year when the Russian foreign ministry made a sudden public statement that Ukrainian drones were threatening one of Putin’s states. residences Inside Russia. Zelensky said the accusation was ridiculous and ‘typical Russian lies’. But it increased mistrust between the two warring states and became a springboard for greater Russian support for the war effort.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reported He said on December 29:

‘Given the eventual corruption of the murderous Kiev regime, which has shifted to a policy of state terrorism, Russia’s negotiating stance will be revised.’

Recent developments have not alleviated concerns in Europe about Putin’s potential and broader geopolitical goals on the continent. In December, NATO Secretary General Mark RutteHe warned of a possible Russian attack on Europe within five years. It was later reported that Putin declared at a domestic defense meeting on 17 December that Russia’s war objectives in Ukraine would be achieved. ‘unconditionally’

Rutte’s announcement also coincides with warnings from Baltic and Eastern European leaders. In their joint statement following the incident, the leaders of Sweden, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria said, “Russia’s complex hybrid operations and sabotage actions against Europe are increasing… Russia’s strategic goals have not changed: To create a buffer zone extending from the Arctic region to the Mediterranean via the Baltic and Black Seas.” East Wing Summit It was held in Helsinki on 16 December.

Russia’s relentless ‘gray zone’ provocation with cyber attacks, border violations, disinformation and election interference aims to increase divisions in European democracies. And fly below the threshold for action that could trigger a major NATO military intervention. In the last four months, drones It crossed the borders of Romania, Spain, Belgium, Germany and Poland. railway line was also bombed and Russian warplanes violated Estonian airspace. Russian-backed sabotage incidents in European countries tripled in 2023-2024, reports Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

previously employed KGB From 1975 to 1991, Putin had first-hand experience of hybrid warfare during the Cold War. And according to Shekhovtsov, there is a connection with his motives today.

Shekhovtsov said:

“[Putin wants to revise] “The consequences of the Cold War in which Soviet Russia lost and the West won… The outcome he would accept as the revised outcome is the dissolution of NATO.”

The desire of former Soviet zone states to join the EU and NATO poses a threat to Putin’s vision of Russia’s destiny. of that ‘A broad Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power uniting the Russian people and other peoples belonging to the cultural and civilizational community of the Russian world,‘ As explained in Russia’s foreign policy for 2023 paper.

So far, NATO’s response has been limited to focusing on strengthening defense systems and territorial protection.

“Governments do not want to increase public anxiety and division by raising this issue, which is one of the main objectives of Russia’s hybrid operations to weaken public support for aid to Ukraine.”

Jon RichardsonA former Australian diplomat based in Moscow and Visiting Researcher at the Australian National University claimed this. European leaders see the risk of tensions escalating into a larger conflict. But the status quo also reinforces Russia’s assumption that NATO will not respond massively to low-level intervention.

During the Cold War, the balance of military power and capability maintained a sustained standoff deterring open war between Russia and the West, but today this situation appears more fragile.

Richardson pointed out that if the United States rejects its active role in the defense of NATO countries:

“…the US nuclear umbrella has been removed, Europe now has no alternative and will face crucial political choices whether to rely solely on British and French nuclear forces or create some form of common European deterrent.”

He added that for the long-term rebuilding of European defense, spending must rise to at least Cold War levels of 3-4 percent of GDP.

For now, Putin’s wartime leadership is the force to be reckoned with when considering Europe’s future security. Critically, his self-confidence and willingness to bide his time are supported by a consolidated internal power base.

Shekhovtsov said:

“He arbitrates Russia’s internal conflicts between different elites or elite groups, and he’s very good at it. He built his regime on consensus between different groups within the Russian elite.”

“If it [Putin] “If it is removed, there are people who will probably continue the war, but I don’t think the same people will be able to stay in power in the Russian Federation.”

Catherine Wilson is a freelance journalist and reporter who reports on current events, global issues, humanitarian crises, politics and international development.

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