Early results show One Nation on track to win Farrer byelection | Farrer byelection 2026
One Nation was heading for its first lower house victory on Saturday night, with early results showing Pauline Hanson’s rebel party taking the lead in the Farrer by-election.
Irrigation expert David Farley looked well placed to beat independent Michelle Milthorpe in the closely watched race; That would turn One Nation’s dramatic rise in public support since last year’s federal election into a clear result in parliament and further weaken Angus Taylor’s depleted Liberal party.
Early stands in small rural communities showed strong support for One Nation, with the Liberal vote declining compared to last year’s federal election.
Milthorpe’s vote also fell but is expected to be stronger around Albury, the main population center in the seat.
The aggregation of regional New South Wales constituencies, which former opposition leader Sussan Ley held for a generation, would be the first time voters have handed a lower house seat to One Nation in an election or by-election.
Hanson, who was elected to parliament as an independent in 1996, founded the populist party in 1997, while Barnaby Joyce, who left the National Party, joined One Nation last year while he was an MP.
Despite the coalition parties holding Farrer for its entire 76-year history, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski and the Nationals’ Brad Robertson were never seen as a strong chance of winning. Labor chose not to enter the race.
One Nation’s victory came after the party’s support had been above 20 percent in opinion polls for months.
The apparent victory prompted Nationals standout Bridget McKenzie to suggest the Coalition could work with One Nation to form government in the future.
“I’m prepared to work with anyone who wants to see Anthony Albanese leave The Lodge, who wants to see sensible water policy for the Southern Connecting Basin and who actually wants to see regional Australia get its fair share,” McKenzie told the ABC.
Independent MP Helen Haines, who holds the neighboring seat of Indi, blamed the preference agreement struck by Taylor and Nationals leader Matt Canavan for the expected result. The coalition backed Farley over Milthorpe, who received financial backing from Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200 organisation.
“The Liberal party and the National party have made the path to One Nation easier by choosing One Nation,” Haines said.
But Farley’s path to becoming One Nation’s newest MP has been rocky in recent weeks after it was revealed the Narrandera-based agribusiness consultant was once a member of the National branch and was even considering running for Labor.
Guardian Australia revealed on Friday the extent of guards’ previous collaboration with the independent movement as they sought to shield Hanson and Farley from media questions.
One Nation blocked media outlets, including the Guardian, from attending the election night event. Hanson regularly bristled at One Nation’s critical coverage.
Farley started the day at Albury public school shortly after 8 a.m.
The party leader was absent during his early morning walk to the polls, but Farley said he would see Hanson later.
In the final days of the campaign, he flew to the seat on a new private plane donated by supporters linked to mining billionaire Gina Rinehart.
Asked about the name Canavan had given him following reports of Farley’s early partnerships with the National Party, the Labor Party and the independent movement, he said: “A flight risk? No.”
Many of the polling stations around Albury were filled with volunteers in orange shirts. There were only a few shades of difference separating Milthorpe’s and One Nation’s supporters.
Paige, 33, from Howlong, 25 minutes from central Albury, voted for Milthorpe despite the growing popularity of One Nation.
The small-town young mother said she felt nervous about the possibility of running for One Nation because of “what’s happening on the international stage with radical ideas.”
“I would like to see an independent party enter parliament and hold some of these major parties accountable,” he said.
John Lacovich, 76, arrived at Thurgoona Community Center on his tricycle this morning with his nine-year-old Jack Russell, Patch.
Under the strong rays of the sun, the longtime One Nation voter said he would vote for Farley because of Hanson.
“He’s honest, he knows what we need, and he speaks sense when he talks,” he said.
Although many had called on Farrer for One Nation on Saturday morning, some voters who trickled into the polls spoke out against it.
Dylan, 24, and Maddie, 25, supported the Legalize Marijuana party because of its health policies but are worried about the minor party’s projected victory.
“I don’t think they want much change. I just think they want to speak their minds louder than everyone else,” Dylan said.
Local nurse Maddie said healthcare was her top priority and placed Milthorpe high on her list of preferences.
“I like the idea of the new hospital,” he said. “We need a win”
Liz, 69, said she voted for Milthorpe because he had “a sensitive attitude towards other people and other cultures”. He said he was not interested in One Nation or “the others.”
“What I’m interested in is the attitude of politicians and how much respect they have for all aspects of life. This is more important than complaining about people from other countries and nonsense like that. It’s stupid,” he said.
“We’re very lucky here to have a roof over our heads and food and not to be bombed.”
