UN report warns current efforts are insufficient to avert catastrophe

Since the Paris Agreement was signed a decade ago, the projected global temperature increase by the end of the century has fallen from 3.7 degrees to 4.8 degrees and from 2.6 degrees to 2.8 degrees.

Aside from this profound practical success, the agreement’s goal of keeping temperature rise to an agreed target and doing so by reducing emissions to net zero by 2050 has become accepted as the norm worldwide. Mechanisms are now in place, such as signatories declaring new, more ambitious targets every five years.

The first cycle has just been completed, in which Australia has committed to a 2035 emissions reduction target of reducing greenhouse pollution by 62 to 70 per cent of 2005 levels.

Not all countries have complied, but almost 75 percent of global emissions are now covered.

This year, for the first time in history, the amount of energy the world obtains from renewable sources exceeds the amount of energy obtained from coal.

Analysis by energy think tank Ember It shows that the total growth of solar and wind energy in the first half of 2025 exceeds global demand growth by 109 percent. While coal production decreased by 0.6 percent, solar energy alone accounted for 83 percent of the increases.

“We are seeing the first signs of an important turning point,” said Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, Ember’s senior electricity analyst, when the analysis was published.

This brings us back to that hopeful picture. The astonishing boom in renewable energy sources, especially solar power, can mostly be attributed to China’s solar cell production, distribution and exports; This has driven down the worldwide price of the technology and therefore led to its worldwide uptake.

Discussing this energy revolution last year, analyst Michael Liebreich said: Economist In 2004, it took the world a full year to install one gigawatt of solar capacity; It lasted a month in 2010; One week in 2016.

“There were days when 2023 gigawatts were installed worldwide” Economist reported. “Analysts at data unit BloombergNEF expect to see 520-655gW of capacity installed through 2024.”

This is extremely good news; not only for the benefits that abundant cheap, clean energy brings to the world’s climate and economy, but also because it shows that multilateral efforts to combat climate change are not just making an impact, they are already making an impact.

But it’s not all good news.

Addressing world leaders before formal talks, United Nations secretary-general António Guterres made clear that our actions to date have been too little, too late to avert disaster.

“The reality is that we couldn’t guarantee staying below 1.5 degrees,” he said. “After decades of denial and delay, science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit is inevitable, from the early 2030s at the latest.”

Gutteres said that with concerted effort, the world could stop warming and slow it again before the end of the century, but the human cost would be terrible.

“Even a temporary overshoot will lead to much greater destruction and costs for every nation,” he said. “It could push ecosystems beyond catastrophic and irreversible tipping points, expose billions to uninhabitable conditions and increase threats to peace and security.

“Every little bit of one degree means more hunger, more displacement, more economic hardship, and more loss of life and ecosystems.”

Global emissions are expected to fall by about 10 percent from 1990 levels by 2035, according to a U.N. report published last month on the gap between required reductions and the world’s current trajectory. This is the first decline the agency has ever predicted, but it falls well short of the 60 percent decline needed to put warming on target to stabilize in line with the Paris targets.

Part of the reason for the gap is what economic writer Ed Conway calls the “evil twin” of the hopeful picture above; This suggests that not only has the IEA failed to predict the pace of China’s renewable energy deployment, it has also failed to forecast. how much new coal would be chewed.

Finally, renewable energy appears to be winning out, not only providing new energy demand but also displacing coal. Moreover, China’s renewable energy technology exports are starting to spur a green revolution in other emerging mega markets such as: Pakistan And India, where coal’s share of new energy demand is falling rapidly.

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This year’s talks will proceed without the U.S. diplomatic machinery that served to move the agenda forward under recent Democratic administrations. Instead, the Trump administration is working to loosen renewable energy subsidies and tax breaks in the United States and support the expansion of fossil fuels.

The Australian delegation will arrive having so far failed to secure the right to co-host a COP in Australia with its Pacific neighbors due to Türkiye’s determination to remain in the race despite widespread support for Australia’s bid.

This will not only distract Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, from the task at hand; This could set a precedent that could destabilize future negotiations, at a time when climate leaders are calling for cooperation to speed up the process.

Addressing world leaders in Rio last week, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the energy revolution has begun but full global cooperation is needed.

“Paris is not working fast enough,” he said. “We have direction but not speed.”

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