Seizure of South Yemen by UAE-backed forces could lead to independence claim | Yemen
The United Arab Emirates-backed military leadership in South Yemen has seized power in the entire south of the country; This opened the possibility for the South to declare independence, returning Yemen to two states for the first time since 1960.
Some 10,000 soldiers from the Southern Transitional Council (STC) surged into the oil-rich Hadhramaut province last week and later into Marah, a less populated province bordering Oman that was not previously under its control.
The victories mean that the STC now controls all eight provinces that formerly made up South Yemen, the first time it has achieved this. Oman initially closed its border with Yemen, demanding that the Southern flag be lowered, but was forced to back down.
In a striking reversal for Saudi Arabia, previously Yemen’s leading external actor, Riyadh withdrew its troops from the airport as well as the presidential palace in the southern capital Aden; This suggests that the forces supported by the Saudis within the UN-recognized government have been defeated, at least for now.
However, a full and immediate state declaration of the STC would be a risky political move given the experience of other countries that have chosen this path, including Western Sahara, which thought it had diplomatic support to secede from Morocco but later saw that support evaporate.
The STC is more likely to claim that it will hold some kind of referendum on independence from the North in the medium term. Ultimately, its future will depend on the decisions taken by its main sponsor, the UAE.
Since the northern-based Houthis seized control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2015, the South has been governed by an uneasy political alliance consisting of the Saudi-backed Islah party, led by Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi, and the UAE-backed STC, led by President Aidarous al-Zubaidi.
The two sides had been working together uneasily within a presidential leadership council, but Zubaidi always had superior military forces. Alimi fled to Riyadh on Sunday, where he met with French, British and American diplomats.
Alimi called on the STC to return to the barracks, adding: “We reject any unilateral measures that undermine the legal status of the state and create a parallel reality.”
Zubaidi’s forces seized control of Yemen’s largest oil company, PetroMasila, based in Hadramaut, last week, following a tacit or explicit signal of agreement, and Zubaidi now appears to be in a strong position to determine the future of the country.
Western diplomats and the UN have always opposed dividing Yemen into two, focusing instead on a Saudi road map that is expected to introduce a federal government that includes the Houthis and forces in the South.
Western diplomats contacted Zubaidi by phone last week to gauge his intentions, including relations with Russia and the consequences of the war to defeat the Iran-backed Houthis. So far, no Western country has made a public statement and there has been no statement from the USA.
Two governorates outside the traditional borders of the South (Taiz and Marib) are not under Houthi control, and the STC may offer them protectorate status to ensure they do not fall into Houthi hands.
Maysaa Shujaa al-Deen, a senior analyst at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, said: “This is arguably the biggest turning point for Yemen since the capital Sana’a fell to the Houthis in 2015. This has the potential to upend regional and local alliances, including bringing the Emirates into conflict with Saudi Arabia. If they negotiate, the STC will be in a strong position to demand some form of self-governance for the South. For Saudi Arabia, what the Houthis have done to Saudi Arabia in the past “Given the attacks, it should be concerned about how its borders will be controlled in the future.”
There is speculation that the UAE gave the STC permission to act after being angered by Saudi Arabia’s request for Donald Trump to intervene to end the civil war in Sudan, a protracted crisis that has caused the UAE a huge amount of negative publicity over allegations that the UAE has armed the Rapid Support Forces, a militia accused of committing war crimes in Darfur.
A Saudi delegation is still in Hadramout and is under intense pressure from Riyadh to salvage something from the chaos.
