Champions League: Is facing a play-off really that bad?
So, if you finish outside the top eight and have to face two more matches, will that ruin your chances of Champions League glory?
Certainly not, as PSG proved magnificently last season.
In the 2024-25 season, Luis Enrique’s team faced elimination from the Champions League when they lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City in the seventh match of the league stage.
However, PSG won 4-2 and then defeated Stuttgart 4-1 to finish the league in 15th place. They then defeated Ligue 1 team Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the knockout play-offs, beat Liverpool on penalties in the last 16, beat Aston Villa in the quarter-finals and Arsenal in the semi-finals, and defeated Inter 5-0 in the final.
PSG will face Monaco in the play-offs this season and Luis Enrique has said his team can win back-to-back Champions League trophies regardless of the extra matches.
“If there is a team ready for the play-offs, it is us,” he said.
“We knew we had a chance of getting into the play-offs. We’ll have to go a long way, but I don’t think anyone else could be seen as more favorites than us.”
Other European club competitions adopted similar formats last season; Despite being 15th in the league stage, Real Betis reached the Conference League final, losing 4-1 to Chelsea.
However, the situation was not the same in the Europa League.
Seven of the top eight teams progressed to the quarter-finals, with fourth-placed Tottenham defeating third-placed Manchester United in the final.
Football data experts Opta rate PSG’s chances of winning the Champions League as higher than Tottenham and Sporting, who finish in the top eight, despite having two extra games left.
The chance of Newcastle and Inter Milan to lift the cup like Spurs is evaluated as 3%.
After an excellent league campaign, Arsenal, who are top of the table, are assessed to have a 30% chance of becoming European champions for the first time.
However, they will be wary of what happened to Liverpool last season after Arne Slot’s side finished first in the league and were then eliminated by PSG in the last 16 stage.
While Bayern Munich, which cannot face Arsenal in the final, is given a 14 percent chance, it is followed by Manchester City and Liverpool with 10 percent, and Chelsea and Barcelona with 7 percent.
