Should Newcastle to Sydney bullet train really be first link built of Melbourne to Brisbane route? | Rail transport

High-speed rail connecting Sydney and Newcastle could cut journeys to an hour by 2039, an independent transport advisory panel says, but more evidence is needed to justify giving the section priority over links to Melbourne and Brisbane.

Infrastructure Australia said it supports a business case where the federal government is moving into further development by the High Speed ​​Rail Authority (HSRA).

The rail authority’s plan sees a high-speed link from Newcastle to the Central Coast opening in 2037. It will then connect to Sydney’s CBD two years later and Western Sydney international airport by 2042.

But Infrastructure Australia wants to know why the New South Wales route needs to be built before lines connecting Melbourne to regional Victoria, Canberra to Sydney and Brisbane to south-east Queensland and northern NSW. A final phase will connect all these lines together.

“A more detailed comparison of the Newcastle to Sydney section with other sections will help justify why this section should be delivered first,” he said in this week’s review. HSRA business case stated.

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According to the business case submitted to Infrastructure Australia in December 2024, construction of the new 194km line will begin in 2027, including six stops at Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, Central Coast, Central station, Parramatta and western Sydney airport.

Approximately 115 km (or almost 60%) of it will be in tunnels. There will be 41 kilometers of surface roads and 38 kilometers of bridges and viaducts.

Infrastructure Australia said maximum speeds on tunneled sections would be reduced by 40% (from 320km/h to 200km/h) but HSRA said this would have minimal impact on travel times.

The journey between Newcastle and Sydney currently takes around two hours and 35 minutes; That’s about 30 minutes slower than driving.

The high-speed train would take an hour. The journey from Newcastle to Parramatta will take a further 15 minutes and another 15 minutes will get passengers to western Sydney airport in a total of 1.5 hours.

Infrastructure Australia’s assessment does not include costs to “maintain commercial sensitivities in future procurement processes”.

Modeling for the NSW government reportedly estimated The project will cost approximately 30 billion dollars.

Infrastructure Australia said large amounts of tunneling could cause the budget to change “significantly”.

Australian governments have been exploring high-speed rail since the 1980s. A 2013 report on the potential for a network connecting cities on Australia’s east coast suggested that the Newcastle to Sydney link should be built after connecting Sydney to Canberra and Canberra to Melbourne.

Infrastructure Australia said on Wednesday the HSRA provided a “proven example” of why the Newcastle-Sydney corridor should be developed first, including tourism and punctuality issues in the region.

The evaluation report stated that this route is Sydney’s most unreliable route in 2024, as less than 79 percent of trains meet targets on time.

Infrastructure Australia has cast doubt on the high-speed line that would boost housing development in the area and called for further analysis.

Stating that travel time savings will contribute only 6% to the cost-benefit ratio, the company stated that the line is expected to result in drive-through in only 5% of the journeys.

“The analysis completed by HSRA shows that only in low cost and high benefit scenarios can the benefits be expected to outweigh the costs,” Infrastructure Australia said.

The assessment will now be submitted to the federal government for consideration.