News Analysis: Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China

WASHINGTON— President Trump responded to the failure of high-stakes talks with Iran by escalating the conflict on Sunday, ordering a complete blockade of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Could cause global oil prices to rise and provoke a confrontation with a much more formidable foe.

No country is more dependent on the strait than China, which gets nearly half of its oil imports from the international waterway. In recent days, Beijing has warned that access to shipping lanes “must be guaranteed.”

Trump administration officials believe the blockade could force China to pressure Tehran to make more concessions, following Beijing’s pivotal role in persuading Iran to agree to an initial ceasefire earlier this month.

But the decision by US diplomats to link talks on the status of the strait to talks on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program – a thorny issue of diplomacy for the last quarter-century – could make it harder to secure a breakthrough.

Meanwhile, a full blockade of the strait could force China to become more directly involved in the conflict that has already escalated tensions with Washington.

Reports on Saturday that Beijing may be preparing to send advanced missile and air defense systems to Iran sparked outrage in the White House.

“If China does this, China will have big problems.” Trump told reporters.

It’s a high-stakes moment for the world’s most important bilateral relationship, ahead of a closely watched summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month that both sides hope will help stabilize relations.

The United States and Iran agreed Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire in the war, provided Iran allows full freedom of navigation in the strait, a vital commercial artery that has been treated as an open, international waterway for decades.

Lengthy negotiations between senior US and Iranian officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, over the weekend failed to reach a long-term agreement.

Vice President J.D. Vance said: central sticking point It was Iran’s insistence on continuing its nuclear program. But Tehran has also signaled that shipping through the strait will not return to pre-war conditions, promising to control traffic and impose transit fees; This is a scenario that could lead to a permanent rise in global oil prices and could be a political nightmare for the Trump administration heading into the midterm elections.

Trump’s threat to completely close traffic in the Bosphorus on Sunday may also cause a temporary increase in oil prices; Experts warn that barrels could cost $150 or more on the market if the blockade continues.

Announcing his plans to Fox News on Sunday, Trump said there would be no exceptions to the US blockade of Tehran’s “friends”. Throughout the war, Chinese ships were given special passage permits by Iranian authorities.

Trump said, “We are implementing a complete blockade. We will not allow Iran to make money by selling oil to people it loves, not to people it doesn’t like.”

“It’s not going to be a percentage,” he added. “You won’t have a friend like a country that is your ally or a country that is your friend. It’s all or nothing.”

Trump too wrote on social media He said he had ordered the Navy to “search and interdict every ship in International Waters that pays fees to Iran” and to “put down to hell” any Iranian assets that fire on ships.

Beijing did not immediately respond to the offer. However, he walked a fine line throughout the six-week war in the region; He described the open waters in the strait as a global interest and refrained from condemning Iran’s assertion of control.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, China’s main energy trading partners in the Gulf, have advocated a return to the pre-transition status quo and pressured their allies to reject Iranian control as the new normal.

“It serves the common interest of the international community to keep the region safe and stable and ensure unimpeded passage,” a Chinese official said last week.

“We hope that all parties can work together to return traffic in the Bosphorus to normal as soon as possible,” the official added.