DOUG SCHOEN: The SOTU winner, the losers — and the problem Trump still hasn’t solved
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President Donald Trump gave a masterful performance Tuesday night. He achieved a number of important goals in his State of the Union address, but it is unclear whether he fundamentally changed the political dynamic in America. Still, it was a great performance with deep messages.
The first and most important message was that the American people should associate the country’s progress, future, and success with the Trump administration and the Republican Party. The president spoke of transformations, comebacks and, most of all, “America’s golden age.” While this wasn’t as convincing as he had hoped, it was moving and uplifting.
Trump, of course, has made his most persuasive case yet that the affordability crisis that Democrats used to win the 2025 off-season election is now finally under control.
He also made clear that the Republican Party has policies on health care, retirement, prices and, most of all, taxes that few people argue will benefit the American people.
At the same time, Trump, in ways I have never heard before, used the speech to condemn not only the Biden administration but also Democrats in Congress who have done little to present a united front on the State of the Union.
Between Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, being kicked out of the House chamber for the second straight day and Team members mocking Trump and wearing profanity-laced buttons, Democrats’ messaging in the 2026 State of the Union was far worse than last year. This was especially true given the more than 30 vacant seats in the chamber, as some Democrats chose to preserve their “People’s State of the Union” — no matter what.
Between Trump’s attacks and the Democrats’ behavior, it’s hard to understand how the country has emerged more united after an extraordinary presentation that should have impressed many Americans. In fact, another strength of Trump’s speech was that he clearly linked the nation’s success to working people, especially the heroes who have accomplished extraordinary feats for our nation, past and present. The explicit and implicit message was that standing with Trump and his policies was the only way for America to achieve the success he spoke of in terms of turnaround, transformation, and most importantly, the coming “golden age.”
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The president’s use of imagery was powerful, from the victorious U.S. Olympic hockey team to military heroes recognized in the legislature. It was awe-inspiring and moving, and left me with a sense of pride that I haven’t felt at the State of the Union speech in years.
Still, I didn’t sense that many minds changed Tuesday night, or that most midterm voters were impressed by the president’s nearly hour and 40 minute speech. While I have no sympathy for today’s Democratic Party — especially its progressive wing — the degree of attacks and anger expressed at a traditionally non-partisan event was off-putting even for someone who has spent 50 years in the turmoil of politics.
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At the same time, Trump set the agenda for the midterm elections and made clear that he would run a populist campaign based on economic empowerment and affordability, contrasting it with the Democratic Party, which he said supports open borders, higher taxes and policies hostile to law and order.
I believe that many Americans found the speech deeply moving and compelling in a way that political events rarely achieve. But I’m not convinced the polls will show the fundamental change that Trump and Republicans hope will occur after the State of the Union.
Time will tell.
It was particularly persuasive when Trump asked lawmakers in the chamber whether they believed in the “fundamental principle” that “the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” Almost no Democrats were left standing.
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This move drew a predictable and sustained standing ovation from Republicans. But given the widespread public concern about ICE’s actions, as polls show, I’m not convinced that this moment — extraordinary as it is — will make immigration the winning issue in 2024. Yes, Americans are aware of the Trump administration’s success in closing the border. But many people now judge the president and his party by ICE’s actions in major cities rather than Homeland Security’s work at the border.
President Trump gave a great speech Tuesday night, but a key challenge remains: I don’t believe that many minds have changed or that Americans have come together.
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