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Slovenians to choose between liberal and populist right

Slovenians will choose between incumbent liberal Prime Minister Robert Golob and right-wing populist Janez Jansa, with neither looking likely to win a parliamentary majority in a vote that could be determined by smaller coalition partners.

Latest opinion polls confirm that pro-Donald Trump Jansa’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) and Golob’s Freedom Movement (GS) are set for a close race on Sunday after eleventh-hour campaign drama involving allegations of foreign interference and corruption.

Analysts say Jansa, who is seeking a fourth term as prime minister of the European Union and NATO member state of two million people, has a loyal voter base and that the lower the turnout, the better his chances of winning the election.

At stake is Slovenia’s domestic and international agenda, where the outgoing government focused on social and health reforms but with mixed results, causing the popularity of Golob’s ruling coalition to plummet.

Jansa has promised to introduce tax breaks for businesses and cut funding for civil society, welfare and the media.

An Alpine country with a developed industrial base, Slovenia emerged stronger from the collapse of Yugoslavia than other states such as Serbia or Bosnia that were left behind by war, economic sanctions and political strife.

Pro-Israel Jansa, an ally of Hungary’s veteran nationalist leader Viktor Orban, is also likely to change Golob’s foreign policy under which Slovenia is one of the few European countries to recognize an independent Palestinian state and imposed an arms embargo on Israel last year.

The election campaign, which observers described as dirty from the start with the hanging of dead animals on GS election posters, escalated this month when undercover videos allegedly exposing government corruption were posted on an anonymous website.

A report published this week alleged that Jansa met with officials of Israeli private espionage company Black Cube; LinkedIn claimed in 2023 that it was behind a hidden camera campaign targeting activists and journalists in the run-up to Hungary’s 2022 elections.

Jansa admitted to meeting with a Black Cube consultant but denied any wrongdoing. Black Cube did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.

Golob briefed European Commission officials on threats to the democratic process in Slovenia and demanded an investigation into reports of foreign interference in the vote.

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