Stock markets aren’t moving on Iran, Greenland and Venezuela risks
Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on January 9, 2026.
Mahsa | Afp | Getty Images
The first two weeks of 2026 have seen US President Donald Trump’s administration nabbing the Venezuelan president, threatening to respond to Iran’s violent crackdown on protests, and talking about the possibility of using force to seize Greenland. So why are stocks rising?
The headlines caused price fluctuations in asset classes such as gold. silver And oil as traders seek safe havens and weigh the impact US intervention in the Middle East could have on oil supplies.
However, stock markets do not seem to care about this news. S&P 500 Markets have had just three losing sessions since starting the new trading year and were up about 1.5% year-to-date as of Thursday’s close. Shares in Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, where tensions are much closer, and Asia-Pacific also rose.
US opinion
Wall Street’s three major averages rose despite the news and appear unconcerned by US President Donald Trump’s apparent demeanor willingness to conduct military operations abroad and the threat to take the territory of a close ally by force.
Along with the S&P 500’s gains, Wall Street’s other two major averages are also up this year: Dow Jones Industrial Average While there was an increase of nearly 3%, technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite increased by 1.2%.
S&P 500
Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Northern Trust Wealth Management, which manages assets worth $1.7 trillion, said markets were unimpressed by Trump’s actions and rhetoric toward Iran, Venezuela and Greenland, in part because no other major economic or military power responded.
“Markets are looking at these events individually, and each flare-up will likely require a unique response to further stimulate the market,” he told CNBC in an email. “We don’t want to predict what the next actions might be, but what we would be concerned about would be if borders were drawn that would affect trade in an increasingly isolated world beyond human conditions in a particular region.”
The U.S. Supreme Court will rule soon on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, but in the meantime, global investors appear to have adjusted to the White House’s 2025 pivots, Freedman said.
“Increasing flare-ups beyond what has occurred so far may prompt countries to reconsider trade ties or threaten sanctions, but until these occur, markets will remain in a more reactive mode if an event occurs and there will be no need to immediately adjust portfolio positioning in anticipation of an event,” he added. “If markets are shifting towards prescriptive positioning or thinking that it is appropriate to take defensive measures because flare-ups are likely to increase, we would likely see a weaker US dollar.”
US dollar indexThe dollar, which measures the dollar’s performance against a number of major rivals, has gained about 1% since the beginning of the year.
Stock market ‘meh’
Alex Morris, CEO of Washington, D.C.-based F/m Investments, described investors’ reactions as “the stock market is ‘meh.'”
“Geopolitics is boiling but not overflowing,” he said. “The president’s use of highly targeted displays of force, but limited time and personnel for on-the-ground operations, leaves markets with little to react to.
“Short-term and final events (no ongoing commitment) provide little for markets to react to. News happens and that’s it. This also helps with the lack of a meaningful response from Iran or Venezuela.”
Morris argued that the market’s muted response was fueled by “increasing stimulus” for what Trump said and increasingly did.
“Despite the significant action, there is little the president is willing to back down immediately, and most of the action in the region has been rolled back or subverted,” he added. “The market has learned to temper excitement and wait for earnings.”
Anthony Esposito, founder and CEO of AscalonVI Capital, said markets have not cared about reducing geopolitical risk for a while.
“Venezuela and Greenland could be seen as positive for US markets and even GDP. [but] no matter what,” he said, noting that energy production, rare earth supply, national security and infrastructure expansion are all involved.
Security forces are seen during a pro-government rally in Tehran, Iran, on January 12, 2026.
Getty Images | Getty Images News | Getty Images
“Iran is a wild card,” he added, saying the market fell earlier this week as it appeared to back away from military action “until Trump calms fears.” “If there was an event in Iran the market would react (oil up, stocks down, gold up), but other than that markets are focused on rates, growth, earnings and the Trump agenda.”
European rally
Stocks in Europe strengthened even amid questions about the future of Greenland, Denmark’s self-governing territory in the Arctic, and Trump’s determination to take over the island. It could mean NATO and continental defence. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up almost 4%.
“The bottom line is there are a lot of issues but they have yet to make an impact through investor sentiment or activity,” said Toni Meadows, chief investment officer at U.K.-based BRI Wealth Management.
“This may not always be the case,” he added. “Greenland [the] “It’s a bigger issue in terms of impact because it’s a discussion within NATO, so at some point if the market believes Trump is threatening to escalate this into a military conflict, markets will react,” he said. “But for now it’s a matter of staying close to the news flow.”
Historically, geopolitics, military conflicts and unconventional policies have not weighed on portfolios as much as investors feared, Benjamin Jones, Invesco’s head of global research, told CNBC in an email.
Markets are unemotional and only react meaningfully when these events impact economic fundamentals or lead to a change in policy.
benjamin jones
Global Head of Research at Invesco
“Many geopolitical events are disruptive, but markets are insensitive and only respond meaningfully and sustainably when these events impact economic fundamentals or lead to a change in policy,” he said.
“History is clear, equity markets have historically performed well in the 12 months following a rise in geopolitical risk.”
Asian stocks on the rise
In fact, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index, which tracks large- and mid-cap stocks across 15 Asia-Pacific countries, is up more than 5% this year, reaching a record high. Japan’s benchmark index Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi index have similarly reached all-time highs in recent days.
Market observers said the increases were not due to investor complacency but due to fundamental reasons such as the absence of major oil shocks and the expectation that easier monetary policy and artificial intelligence spending will continue to support earnings growth.
“The impact of geopolitical events is generally reflected in global markets through oil prices, but there are no significant shocks in the oil market so far,” said Yap Fook Hien, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered.
A T-shirt reading “Greenland is not for sale” is displayed at a store in Nuuk, Greenland, on January 15, 2026.
Alessandro Rampazzo | Afp | Getty Images
Yap added that Asian investors and global equity markets are more influenced by policy stimulus, including US interest rate cuts and AI investments, all of which are supporting a strong outlook for earnings growth this year.
“Geopolitics remains a significant risk, but the shock since Independence Day in April 2025 has conditioned markets to react more calmly to Trump’s actions,” he said.
Shihan Abeyguna, Morningstar’s managing director for Southeast Asia, told CNBC that markets may now view geopolitics as “a chronic risk rather than an acute shock.”
He added that Asian valuations are inelastic enough to leave markets vulnerable to prolonged declines without a real shock.
Abeyguna said geopolitical concerns in the region “tend to be more sensitive, so there has to be a real and unexpected shock that changes earnings expectations.”
