Student visa surge signals migration rebound despite policy tightening

Late policy measures have not stopped public universities from fueling a new wave of students from abroad, and Dr. Australia’s immigration figures are set to rise again, writes Abul Rizvi.

AT THE END OF COVID, the Coalition Government has put its foot down on the immigration accelerator, especially in terms of student visas. The New Labor Government belatedly tightened the policy from the second half of 2023 and continued to do so until recent months.

We start to see the impact of policy easing in August and September. So how far will this change take us and what will be the consequences for immigration policy in general?

As a result of the relaxation of COVID-era policy, new offshore student applications in 2022 hit an all-time record of 361,571. That was nearly 65,000 more than the pre-COVID record. In 2023, this number was surpassed with a new record of 444,538 offshore student applications. This was the main driver of the net migration boom in 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Despite policy tightening from the second half of 2023, offshore student applications began to decline by 2024. The number of offshore student applications in 2024 was 288,314, and offshore applications in each month of 2024 were lower than the corresponding months of 2023.

This trend continued into the first half of 2025, where student applications in every month of 2025 were lower than the equivalent month of 2024.

This was the case until August 2025, when offshore student applications marginally exceeded the August 2024 level. Offshore student applications were 19,795 in September 2025 compared to 14,963 in September 2024.

This change is mainly due to the function of public universities, which are well behind their notional place allocations for 2025 provided by the Ministry of Education (private higher education providers were well ahead of their allocations, whereas VET providers were way behind).

The Department for Education has apparently encouraged public universities to increase recruitment, particularly from source countries other than China (there has been no such incentive for VET providers).

There is a significant revival in offshore student applications from India and Nepal, as well as continued strength in Bangladesh. The rejection rates of offshore student applications, which were particularly increasing from the second half of 2023 and throughout 2024, have now been eased.

Public universities will expect rejection rates to continue moderating or even decrease further in 2025. The increased level of student planning for 2026 and the placement of almost every public university in 2026 has encouraged them to think this way. low risk category For evidence requirements.

In this context, offshore student applications in October, November and December 2025 are likely to significantly exceed applications in the same months of 2024. As is the policy for offshore VET and English language intensive courses for overseas students, these are less likely to exceed levels in 2023 (ELICOS) visas are still tight.

The VET and ELICOS sectors benefited significantly from looser policy environments in 2022 and 2023 and are now facing serious financial pressures due to the government-engineered crisis.

These developments will make public universities very happy and make them angry. Minister of National Education Jason ClareComing back to funding issues, the long-term outcome is that net migration will not fall as much as the Treasury predicts. Ongoing pressures will continue to increase, with unprecedented backlogs on the Permanent Migration Programme.

The Government appears to have no plans to manage this, as there is no overarching policy framework to manage net migration and the permanent migration programme, and no minister is prepared to take responsibility for it. Minister of Immigration Tony Burke continues make excuses for not developing a long-term policy framework to manage migration.

Coalition Shadow Immigration Minister Paul ScarrShe rightly criticizes him for this, but he doesn’t stick to a long-term plan. Australians may have to live with the fact that neither side of politics wants to commit to a long-term immigration plan.

Dr Abul Rizvi Independent Australian columnist and a former Deputy Secretary of the Immigration Service. You can follow Abul on Twitter @RizviAbul.

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