Labour still has a big persuasion job ahead

Im I haven’t had a lot of quality time with my colleagues since the Brexit wars, a minister said to me with a cynical smile.

A statement that reaches the heart of this order of benefit within the Labor Party: This is a government with a large majority, already making a large U -turn and still involved in a great persuasion.

This does not mean having the government for a year and the majority of the work of 165.

The prime minister himself will be convincing today, and as these changes see, it will be necessary not only in accordance with the values ​​of labor, but also because it is necessary to ensure the long -term stability of the welfare state.

However, in a statement from Commons of Commons on Monday, Liz Kendall, the Secretary of Labor and Pension, it is a clear question of whether it works if the Labor Party is aiming to guarantee deputies.

A backbencher, “very few colleagues closed. I think it will pass, but it will be close,” he said.

There was a lot of talk about 40 to 50 labor deputies, but things remain fluently.

Given the size of the majority of the study, the rebels need to save about 80 of their colleagues to vote against the government to defeat them, and everything else is equal.

However, a key factor can choose to choose the voting on Tuesday evening.

Meanwhile, Profile Philip Cowley of Queen Mary University of London says Sir Keir Starmer, the largest Backbench rebellion, is 16 so far.

The biggest rebellion in Tony Blair’s first year at the Downing Street is 47 and the welfare state – only the advantage of the parent.

In 200 years, the biggest Backbench rebellion for any administrative party was in 2003 in 2003.

A part of the concern about these benefits is recommended for the Payment of Personal Independence (PIP) at the end of next year.

As of November 2026, the plan will tighten the conformity criteria for the main disability assistance.

Some labor force deputies and ministers hoped that the PIP, which was carried out by Sir Sir Sir Sir Sir Sir Sir Sir Stephen Timms, which contained disabled people, would secure that their intentions were something that could return to their colleagues.

However, the joints of the investigation due to the reporting of the joints in the autumn of the next year – the concerns of the time zone – that November that it would be too late to have an impact on the conformity criteria for the PIP would be too late.

And there is a criticism underlying: the reason why the plans remain in place at the end of next year is the “scoring” of the government’s budget responsibility, which is the center of the government’s economic management, to “score” the budget responsibility for the addition of the numbers of Rachel Reeves’ numbers.

For abundant labor deputies, this wrong -headed, more and more difficult to defend for Topsy Turvy and the government.

But at the same time, when there is a debate dominated by noisy people, it is worth emphasizing that many of them are now holding their heads below, as they are quietest labor deputies, and that they find this order troublesome and basically naive.

And Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves have long argued that for a long time, labor was built as the reliable custody of the economy.

Prime Minister, the Prime Minister, the chief whip in charge of voting, Sir Alan Campbell, when there was not only one excess, an objection to a unit that took place when there was not a surplus and workers’ deputies “as a team,” he said.

The party said it should come together after this difficult vote.

The deputies will discuss their plans later and the vote is expected at the beginning of this evening.

And even if the government wins, it won’t be the end of this issue.

More discussion and votes are expected in the next few weeks.