Surprise US talks with Iran’s fractured leadership offer uncertain path out of conflict | US-Israel war on Iran

The back-channel talks between Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi were no secret in the sense that the Egyptian Foreign Ministry tweeted that talks were continuing on Sunday, 24 hours before Donald Trump’s Monday deadline to begin blowing up Iran’s energy infrastructure.

But the chaos surrounding the process is so great that what were thought to be fairly brief discussions may have lasted longer than Sunday, with multiple mediators jostling for the title of peacemaker, as is often the case.

For example, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir spoke to Trump on Sunday, while Pakistani prime minister Mohammed Shehbaz Sharif met with Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday. It is possible that Pakistan could become the venue for further talks, this time involving the war-sceptic vice president J.D. Vance. British prime minister Keir Starmer was right to warn against counting on an early end to the conflict.

Trump insists that it is the Iranians who want to talk and that their minds are focused on Trump’s threat to destroy a $10 billion power plant. Tehran initially denied any direct or indirect talks had taken place, saying: “There are no negotiations between Tehran and Washington. The US President’s statements are within the framework of an attempt to reduce energy prices and gain time for the implementation of his military plans.”

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said foreign minister Badr Abdelatty held talks with the participation of the foreign ministries of Pakistan, Qatar, Turkey, Iran and the US special envoy. The ministry said the talks were designed to prevent current regional tensions from getting out of control. The Omani Foreign Minister also said that they were holding talks on how to open the Strait of Hormuz. Appearing before the Westminster parliamentary select committee, Starmer became the first European leader to say he was aware of the talks.

The first sign that the epic Operation Rage might be over came when Trump announced in a social media post, just before the potentially catastrophic financial markets opened, that he had stopped attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure because of “very good and productive discussions” with the “country of Iran.” He wrote throughout the week that these talks could lead to a “complete and complete solution” to the war.

This had the effect of a bombshell, albeit with a slow detonator, because at first it looked as if Trump was either a dreamer or simply creating a cover to back down, as in countless previous conflicts over tariffs or Greenland, for example.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry initially insisted no talks had taken place and said Trump had backed down in the face of the scale of the economic and energy crisis he had single-handedly created. The State Department also accused Trump of trying to lower Iran’s energy prices, a key measure of its success in the war, or to buy time to prepare the ground force it needs to take strategic islands in the still-closed Strait of Hormuz.

When asked why, by his standards, Iran was denying that these talks were taking place, Trump responded politely by saying that it was possible that the country’s internal communications system had failed. Trump refused to name the “esteemed leader” he said he was talking to, but said it was not religious leader Mojtaba Khamenei. He added that the mysterious leader has acted reasonably and has fulfilled what has been asked of him so far.

There was a dangerous possibility that someone in Iran’s reduced leadership group would become a free agent, and if so, a major political backlash would ensue. Speculation has grown that Araghchi, the foreign minister and chief nuclear negotiator, has been sidelined in an as-yet-undisclosed power struggle.

Iran’s lines of political authority are in chaos due to the damage caused by Israel’s assassination campaign. Among the survivors, Pezeshkian has his strengths as a unifying figure of integrity, but he is out of depth in nuclear talks and is not fully trusted by the military. Ali Larijani, the former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Iran’s political glue for the past 12 months, had just been buried. The new religious leader was probably in a coma and completely invisible. This left Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament and a staunch supporter of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, largely political.

However, Ghalibaf partially denied it, saying there were no negotiations with the US; This is a formula that leaves other options open other than direct negotiations with the United States. He wrote: “Our people demand full and humiliating punishment of the aggressors. Until this goal is achieved, all authorities stand behind their Leader and their people. There have been no negotiations with America. Fake news is designed to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are stuck.”

However, gradually Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei opened up. The spokesman said: “Over the past few days, messages have been received from a number of friendly countries stating that America has requested negotiations to end the war, and these requests have been responded to appropriately and in accordance with the country’s principled positions – Iran’s position regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the conditions for ending the imposed war have not changed.”

Regional capitals confirmed that indirect talks took place specifically on Sunday, and some of Trump’s claims about what was going on behind the scenes were accurate, even if his description of the US’s strategic strength in the war was controversial. Trump insisted that Israel would be very happy with what it has.

Trump talked about a 15-point agreement reminiscent of the 21-point agreement on Gaza or the 28-point agreement for Ukraine. In a series of press briefings, Trump offered the wildest headlines about what the deal might include.

A key element of this, he said, is the joint control of the Strait of Hormuz by “me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is.” Other elements included no nuclear bombs, no nuclear weapons “not even close,” no nuclear powder, by which he meant the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, “low key on missiles,” peace in the Middle East, by which he meant talks between Iran and its angry neighbors in the Gulf, and finally “no enrichment.” Many of these proposals had already been adopted during or on the sidelines of talks in Geneva.

But it would be a huge step if Iran agreed to give up its right to enrich uranium, as this has been a principle and a sticking point between the two sides for two decades. Three previous rounds of talks, mediated in Oman and interrupted by the US attack on Iran, were stuck on the issue. Iran rejected the US offer to provide free uranium for 10 years.

Nothing is certain except that the talks will fail, Trump told reporters: “We’re going to keep bombing our little hearts.”