Trade deal with US infringes on Indias sovereignty and leaves a Russia question, experts explain why

The India-US trade deal is celebrated in the US and criticized in India. While ruling politicians in India are celebrating the reduction of tariffs to 18%, neither the opposition nor the internet are happy about it. The reason is historical data and Russia’s oil issue. The US has officially warned that it will monitor India’s purchases of Russian oil through direct or indirect channels and may reimpose tariffs if it finds that Delhi continues to import crude from Moscow.

While American documents clearly link the trade deal, tariffs and Russia-India ties, the Narendra Modi government denies these allegations. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said his job was to finalize the trade agreement and the issue of Russia’s oil purchases belonged to the Ministry of External Affairs. On the other hand, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. When S Jaishankar was asked the same question earlier, he asked reporters to contact Goyal/commerce ministry. If recalled, it was Jaishankar himself who once told the world that India cannot be dictated to on what to buy and where to buy it. Pride is over now. Experts think that the US successfully pressured India and Delhi succumbed to the pressure.

However, the MEA made a statement stating that India has diversified its oil imports according to market conditions and that the decision was taken on the basis of meeting the energy needs of the country’s 140 crore citizens.

However, there is no direct rejection of America’s claim. This further increases speculation. Shiv Sena-UBT MP Priyanka Chaturverdi also flagged the issue. “President Trump’s executive order very clearly says that if India buys Russian oil, directly or indirectly, tariffs can be reimposed, meaning this trade agreement will be invalid. What is the Minister claiming that the trade agreement is independent of the decision to purchase oil? Mr. Secretary, these are not two separate ministerial matters, they are directly related to each other – the trade agreement came on the back of the assurance that we will be told where to buy oil and where not to buy oil. These answers from a place of arrogance reinforce the fact that we have the right to allow the US to influence our national interests for its own benefit.” “We allowed it and we submitted,” he said.

Even experts are flagging the issue on social media. An expert explained how the agreement violates India’s sovereignty. “I don’t think the trade deal has done any good; reducing tariffs on India’s imports was long overdue… But the US has actually increased tariffs from 2.4% to 18%. In addition, India has given up on sovereign decisions on where to buy oil. In the past, India has compromised on oil from Iran and Venezuela, but now the US has forced it to compromise on oil from Russia, its biggest defense partner,” said Harvard Kennedy School Research Fellow Kunal Singh.

Singh also said that the situation will not improve even after Trump leaves office because a future president will know that India can successfully challenge India. “Since the new markers have been set, any future negotiations with India will start with a terrible first offer from the US. Even if a future US president wanted to be generous, why would he?” he said.

There are three myths about the India-US trade deal.
Myth 1: This is an agreement that involves giving and receiving. India gave up some things like Russian oil and tariffs, got the US to reduce its tax rate from 50% to 18%.
Fact: The US actually increased tariffs from 2.4% to 18%. 1/9 — Kunal Singh (@d_extrovert) February 8, 2026

“The deal goes beyond that and violates India’s sovereignty in unprecedented ways. India’s defense partnership with the US is not even close to what it is with Russia. India is currently allowing the US to vote on its relations with Russia. This is a bad deal and needs to be scrapped,” Singh said.

Geoecon analyst and Founder Politics 4.0 founder Tanvi Ratna said Trump has always aligned India with Russia. “In Trump’s calculation, India was aligned with Russia from day one. Tariff pressure was a leverage against India’s ties to Russia, not against India’s trade surplus… If Russia-Ukraine talks are successful, I would expect the India-US agreement to solidify after the ‘interim’ draft. If it collapses, expect volatility to return,” he said.

Months ago I looked for this: Trump’s tariff hike on India was always a 4D chess game over Russia/Ukraine, it was never about India. Even local commentators are saying this now. However, I believe there are two issues that add geopolitical uncertainty to the India-US agreement.

1)… https://t.co/tGVUlP8df0— Tanvi Ratna (@tanvi_ratna) February 8, 2026

Piyush Goyal and Dr S Jaishankar’s evasive responses show that India is still unhappy with the US trade deal and there is uneasiness within the government as well. The two ministers were very vocal when it came to India’s pride and sovereignty, but not this time. Uncertainty regarding India’s oil imports from Russia also adds uncertainty to the trade agreement with the United States. Experts argue that this is not a trade deal but a bargaining exercise in which India stands to lose more than it wins, as it is driven by Trump’s coercive policies and does not stem from mutual understanding between the two countries.