Sussan Ley has two factors working in her favour as rumours of a Liberal leadership mutiny swirl | Sussan Ley

In the chaotic few hours after national leader David Littleproud blasted the Coalition, one thing became clear to many Liberal MPs.

Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Liberal party was almost over.

Already suffering from historically poor opinion poll figures, the view among colleagues was that the Coalition’s second breakup in eight months had made Ley’s position “unsalvageable”, to quote one MP.

The perspective was expressed most strongly by conservatives who tended to criticize Ley, but not only. Even some of his supporters admitted that the clock is ticking.

Almost a week after the dramatic split, speculation is rife that Ley will be challenged and defeated by either Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie in a leadership spill as early as next week.

But there are two factors working in Ley’s favor that could at least buy time, if not prevent what many still see as the inevitable outcome.

The first is that no Liberal MP except his harshest internal critics agreed with Labour’s decision to accept the resignations of three National senators who took to the floor on hate speech laws and downplayed Littleproud’s threat that it would effectively end the Coalition.

Ley’s decision was approved by the Liberal leadership team, which includes Taylor and other senior Conservatives Michaelia Cash, James Paterson and Jonno Duniam.

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Some Liberals are upset with the rushed process that led to support for Labor’s hate speech laws. However, the majority of the party hall believed that banning neo-Nazi organizations and the Islamic group Hizb ut Tahrir was justified.

Many of Ley’s colleagues blame Littleproud for the emerging crisis, and none of them are willing to reward this behavior by capitulating to the Liberals’ not-so-subtle ultimatum that they change their leaders to reunite the Coalition.

According to Ley’s supporters, what happened last week does not amount to a fireable crime.

But the campaign to oust the party’s first female leader is not about hate speech or even a split over the management of relations with the National Party.

Ley and her allies know this.

These were merely excuses to launch a coup that had been planned for months, arising from ongoing hostilities since Ley narrowly defeated Taylor in the post-election leadership vote.

At the end of last year, before the Bondi terror attack, Conservative MPs were discussing plans to switch to Ley if the Coalition’s poor polls did not improve by the time the federal budget is announced in May (about 12 months into Ley’s term).

But before any formal challenge could be launched, MPs agreed that Taylor and Hastie should first decide which would be the right group’s candidate to take on the moderate-minded Ley.

This question has not yet been resolved: the second factor that buys Ley time.

The shadow leadership campaign waged in the media has exposed a split within the conservative faction – including generations – that threatens to derail the coup.

Hastie’s supporters are adamant that the official has the support of the group and want the elder Taylor to step aside.

Liberal sources said Taylor, the most senior member of the right, would not give up the chance to stand and reportedly offered Hastie the position of MP as a compromise, but the offer was rejected.

Ley’s supporters are confident that a combination of two factors – the Taylor/Hastie impasse and widespread reluctance to reward the Nationals’ aggression – means the fight will not happen.

“Angus has the better claim (to challenge the right wing). Hastie has the numbers. Sussan has the backing of the party room,” said one Liberal powerbroker.

“This is a real stalemate.”

Dan Jervis-Bardy is Guardian Australia’s chief political correspondent