Sussan Ley’s leadership in peril as Liberals move toward dumping net zero commitment

Moderate Liberals, including Senator Dave Sharma, are openly discussing the possibility of leaving the National Party, but Ley abandoning that policy could potentially head off a right-wing challenge to his leadership early next year. Former Liberal MP Jason Falinski spoke out against splitting on Monday.

Loading

If Ley continues to trash net zero, it would indicate a calculation that it is easier to call her bluff against the Moderates’ threat to blow up the party than to risk a challenge from her right wing.

Leadership fight not close but dire situation Newspaper survey published Australian Monday’s Coalition preselection vote showing a record low of 24 per cent led to private talks with his deputy Ted O’Brien about the leadership prospects of right-wing rivals Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie. Whoever takes the leadership will bear the burden of removing the party’s first female leader, who inherited a severely weakened Coalition following the election loss under Peter Dutton in May.

Taylor will likely take over if Ley’s position becomes unsustainable this year, according to sources from both groups, but neither he nor his allies are discussing the numbers. A leadership challenge appears more likely to emerge next year after Hastie spends some time developing his support base and policy agenda.

Asked whether Ley’s leadership was still tenable, South Australian MP Tony Pasin, who has consistently disparaged Ley from the backbench, echoed former treasurer Scott Morrison’s famous remark in 2019 that he was “ambitious” for then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, days before Turnbull lost his job to Morrison.

“I’m confident the Liberal Party is improving. It’s disappointing that the polls show we’ve gone backwards since the election, which was a very bad result in itself,” he said. “But I don’t hear my colleagues whispering about leadership.”

NSW senator Andrew Bragg said it was possible for the Liberals to finalize policy that would ensure the continuation of the Coalition. Nationals have called for the removal of the net zero policy, adhering to the Paris Agreement, which is backed by net zero commitments from many countries. Bragg argued that the National Team’s intention to stay in Paris meant a compromise between the parties.

“My hope is that we can find the needle on this in the next few weeks,” Bragg said.

Three other Liberals, who asked to remain anonymous so they could speak freely, expressed disappointment with Ley’s performance and her handling of the net zero debate.

“Although he has not been attacked by the Labor Party, he is now no more popular with Australians than Peter Dutton,” one of them said.

A frontbencher Conservative MP said they were impressed by the Nationals’ sales pitch on their emissions proposal published on Sunday; this proposal included a slower renewable energy transition that retained a non-binding commitment to emissions cuts. “It was delicious and most of us think the Liberals can get pretty close to that position,” the MP said.

Ley said on Monday: “I said the Nationals would make their decisions in their party room and the Liberals would similarly make their decisions in our party room. But our joint energy working group has done an incredibly solid job … and we can look forward to the Liberal Party’s energy position and then coming together as a Coalition.”

The government’s commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 includes setting five-year targets. In September, Labor announced its 2005 emissions reduction target of 62-70 per cent on 2005 levels, to follow a plan to reduce greenhouse gases by 43 per cent by 2030.

Loading

Simon Holmes, pioneer of the Climate 200-backed teal movement, said it was ridiculous for the National Party to claim they would stick to the Paris Agreement while senators called for new coal mines. He claimed the Coalition challenge led to a record number of Climate 200 donors on Friday.

“We have seen voters leave the Liberal Party in droves, they are not going to the Labor Party though, they are going to third parties,” he said on ABC TV.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up for our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.