Swiss sneaker maker’s guidance disappoints
Roger models, named after former tennis player and company investor Roger Federer, are displayed at the store of Swiss shoe manufacturer On in Zurich, Switzerland, on August 28, 2025.
Denis Balibouse | Reuters
Swiss sneaker maker On Holding lost 11% in pre-market trading despite issuing forecasts for another year of strong growth and reporting record sales and rising profitability in 2025.
The brand, which sells premium-priced sneakers and apparel, reported net sales of 743.8 million Swiss francs ($946 million) in the fourth quarter, up 30.6% at constant exchange rates, beating LSEG’s forecast of 723.5 million francs.
Sales for the full year exceeded 3 billion francs for the first time, slightly above forecasts of 2.99 billion francs.
The rapidly growing brand said it forecasts its 2026 net sales to increase by at least 23% in constant currencies. At current spot rates, this would mean sales of at least 3.44 billion francs, but the consensus among sell-side analysts expected this year’s sales to be closer to 3.7 billion francs. The company sees an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 18.5% and 19%.
Shares were trending sideways since the beginning of the year as they entered trading on Tuesday.
On is currently in its third and final year strategy to double sales To increase the EBITDA margin to 3.55 billion francs and increase the EBITDA margin to at least 18% by 2026, with the aim of becoming the “most premium global sportswear brand”.
The company, which went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2021, managed to gain market share from old competitors. Nike And adidas with a focus on innovative products and performance footwear and apparel.
“We are witnessing a fundamental societal shift, with people globally replacing traditional markers of status with a commitment to health, longevity and performance,” said David Allemann, co-founder and executive chairman of the company. “On is uniquely positioned to meet the demands of this discerning consumer.”
Profitability also reached new highs for the full year, the company said.
In this quarter, adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) increased by 31.8% to 131 million francs; This exceeded LSEG’s forecast of 112.4 million francs, reflecting a margin of 18.8%. The company said that this rhythm reflects operational efficiency and the positioning power of brands.
Asia-Pacific was by far the standout region; Sales in the region increased by 85.1% at constant exchange rate. The Americas and EMEA grew by 21.3% and 27.5%, respectively, in the three months ending December.
“The strength of our premium strategy allows us to exceed our lofty targets while providing the flexibility to reinvest in high-return areas that we hope will accelerate our growth in the coming years,” CEO Martin Hoffmann said in a statement.
In the previously reported quarter, On surprised investors on the upside, beating expectations on both the top and bottom line, sending the stock up 18% as it raised guidance for the third consecutive year. He also stated that since he aims to be a premium brand, he will not offer any deals during the shopping season.
Stocks have been largely flat since the beginning of the year; some analysts suggest that challenges will increase in 2026 and that stock valuations do not fully reflect these risks.
“In a more challenging pricing environment and increased competitive intensity, premium positioning alone may not be sufficient to sustain price-led growth without risking demand and/or higher promotional activities,” said Jefferies analyst Randal Konik, who rated the shares Underperform in late February.
— CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge contributed to this report
