Syrian and Kurdish forces agree to extend ceasefire as threat of war looms | Syria

The Syrian government and Kurdish forces agreed on Saturday to extend a ceasefire, temporarily preventing an impending war between the two sides in northeastern Syria, according to Syrian diplomatic sources.

Diplomatic sources told Agence France-Presse that the ceasefire would be extended “for up to a month at most”, citing the need to facilitate the transfer of suspected members of the Islamic State from Syria to Iraq.

The two sides declared a temporary ceasefire at the beginning of the week and stopped the attack that brought the Syrian government army to the doorstep of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The announcement quelled concerns that the offensive would resume on Saturday and gave more room for diplomacy, but did not resolve the root of the dispute between the two sides.

Clashes over three disputed neighborhoods in Aleppo in early January led to a sweeping government offensive that led to the SDF losing most of its territory in the country within days.

The purpose of the ceasefire was to give the SDF time to work with the Syrian government to implement a 14-point plan to disband the Kurdish militias and integrate their soldiers into the Syrian army.

If the SDF does not implement the agreement, Damascus will continue its attacks and advance towards the SDF’s last strongholds in Hasakah and the Kurdish-majority Qamishli and Kobani regions.

Both sides spent the ceasefire preparing for the possibility of a full-scale war.

While SDF forces were massing in Kurdish-majority areas, SDF leaders called for general mobilization among the residents there and called for the distribution of weapons to those who wanted to take up arms.

Syrian government soldiers and tanks poured into the front line, hoping to bring the northeast under Damascus’ control. “Hopefully, we will reach Hasakah soon and then Qamishli,” said a soldier on guard duty as logistics convoys headed towards the Hasakeh front on Thursday.

While soldiers waited on the battlefield, Syrians and regional powers engaged in diplomacy to prevent a resumption of the war. SDF leader Mazloum Abdi traveled to Iraqi Kurdistan for the second time, where he met with the US envoy to Syria Tom Barrack, who is mediating talks between the SDF and Damascus.

Abdi also spoke by phone with Syrian foreign minister Asaad al-Shabani, after which an agreement was struck allowing the safe transfer of SDF fighters from a besieged prison in Syrian government-controlled territory.

“Ideally, the transfer of ISIS [Islamic State] Prisoners from Syria must be included. While this is happening, the current de-escalation environment needs to be preserved,” said Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, referring to the US-facilitated transfer of more than 7,000 suspected ISIS members and fighters from Syria to Iraq on Friday.

Despite the extension of the ceasefire, the dispute between the two sides still continues. The 14-point plan would put an end to the autonomous Syrian Kurdish project, and Kurdish leaders appeared to be struggling to come to terms with their losses in the past two weeks, leaving them with little influence.

The SDF went from controlling almost a third of the country, including oil fields, breadbaskets and basic infrastructure, to controlling just a few cities in two weeks. The deal on the table would transform the Kurdish force, which recently boasted of commanding a 100,000-strong force, into a municipality overseeing the local police force, which essentially runs several Kurdish cities in the country’s northeast.

Abdi, long known as a pragmatic figure among the SDF, has signaled he would be willing to implement the agreement.

However, it is having difficulty reaching consensus within the SDF.

If Abdi cannot unite the SDF and implement the agreement with the government, the alternative will be war. Damascus has made clear that it will no longer tolerate non-state armed groups and has stated that it is determined to unite the country under its own flag, both through negotiations and force.

The United States, which has supported the Kurdish force for the last decade, also supported Damascus, and Barrack said that the SDF’s role as the anti-ISIS force in Syria is now filled by the Syrian government.

The US military has already begun transferring ISIS prisoners from Kurdish territory to prevent any escape ahead of a renewed war with Damascus. Once ISIS prisoners are secured, the US military presence in northeastern Syria will have little strategic interest.

Even though Damascus has the military advantage and regional support, it still hopes to avoid a war. The SDF offensive so far has suffered relatively few casualties, as the SDF has opted to withdraw from some Arab-majority areas such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor rather than confront the Syrian government directly.

Conflicts in Kurdish-majority regions will likely be bloodier.

Following last year’s government-sponsored massacres in the Druze-majority Suwayda province and the Alawite-majority Syrian coast, there is fear and unrest among Kurdish civilians towards Syrian government fighters.

Many living in Kurdish-majority areas took up arms in the face of the threat of war. Kurdish forces, who have been preparing for this fight for years, created and dug an extensive network of underground tunnels to facilitate the guerrilla fight against a better armed force.

Damascus is aware that even if they win the war, they could alienate the Kurds, push the SDF underground and create a PKK-style insurgency in Syria in the coming years.