Decorating home for Christmas? Holiday goods shortages are coming

If you’re planning to decorate your home for the holidays, with everything from artificial Christmas trees to lights to decorative wreaths and rings, you may want to start early.

One of the nation’s largest importers of artificial Christmas trees is warning of limited inventory as a result of trade war tariffs and says this will apply to the broader category of seasonal decorative items.

“We brought in about 25% less product,” National Tree Company CEO Chris Butler told CNBC. he said. “We’re definitely going to see short supply this year. So if you’re a consumer and you’re in the market for Christmas goods this year, I would definitely act now and get ahead of the curve.”

Butler said the peak of Christmas decor sales is Black Friday weekend.

“That’s when sales are the absolute highest, but I wouldn’t expect that weekend,” Butler said. he said. “I would get ahead of that. Buy now, buy early is what I would tell consumers.”

If consumers can find the products they want, prices are likely to be higher.

Butler said that because of the trade war, the company not only had to bring in less inventory, but also had to raise prices by 10% as a result of the tariffs.

“This year we are promoting our merchandise during Black Friday and Amazon’s Prime Bigs Feel Day, but not as heavily as in past years,” he said. “I think most consumers will be able to weather a 10% price increase, but consumers at the lower end of the economic spectrum may struggle.”

Butler, who leads the Christmas Trade Group, a 10-member organization representing more than 1,000 employees and generating over $1 billion in revenue each year, met with both the Treasury Department and the U.S. Commerce Office to discuss the situation.

“That’s why we have conversations [Trump] We can potentially bring Christmas forward and give American consumers the low prices we think they deserve,” the administration said.

Issues of availability and affordability stem from concerns about weaker consumer demand as fewer products come to the United States.

The latest warning comes as National Association of Wholesale Distributeers President and CEO Eric Hoplin told CNBC that orders from brick-and-mortar retailers and local hardware stores are down as much as 60%.

ImportGenius data shows the sharp pullback in National Tree Company imports.

“Compared to previous years, the import volumes we could see in August and September for National Tree Company are strikingly lower,” said ImportGenius research director William George. “August volumes were down 58% year over year, and September was down over 70% year over year.”

October has historically been the last major import month for National Tree Company, George said. “This is an important month to watch,” George said. “However, this is a significant decline during peak season months, indicating low expectations for this Christmas retail season,” he said.

Typically, the company will import products on an ongoing basis from May to October, but at varying tariffs.

“We’ll definitely be bringing in some merchandise by mid-November, which is very, very late for us, but again, the peak of business is around Thanksgiving weekend. There’s plenty to sell that merchandise, but they’ll definitely be a little bit later than normal,” he said. The 25% decline in product includes this inventory, the official added.

The number of containers filled with supply goods on water from Asia to the USA is lower than last year. According to trade tracker Vizion, 14 containers are arriving this week. Last year, 113 containers arrived in the same calendar week.

Four containers arrive for the week of October 13th. Last year, the company imported 204 containers during the same week. Container volumes for the week of October 27 are closer: 44 containers are expected to arrive compared to 48.

“Looking at upcoming U.S. import arrivals for the national tree company scheduled to arrive before December 1, it’s clear that the volume of Christmas trees will pale in comparison to the same period from last year,” said Ben Tracy, vice president of Vizion. he said. “We see similar declines each year for other holiday decor items, such as lights, but based on size alone, trees appear to show the most dramatic decline.”

Looking at the company’s supply chain, Panjiva accounts for 60% of its National Tree imports from China. Other import countries include: Hong Kong (27%), Cambodia (3%) and other Asian countries including Vietnam and Indonesia.

Butler says CNBC production in the U.S. or other countries is cost-prohibitive.

“Obviously, labor is more expensive in the U.S. where we do math, and a tree made in the U.S. would probably be about two and a half to three times more expensive,” he said. “So we continue to look at automation. We continue to look at other things we can do, whether it’s other ways to get closer and mitigate, but it would be too expensive at this point and the economics probably wouldn’t work.”