There’s Compelling Evidence That Someone Connected to the Trump Administration Profited Off the Invasion of Venezuela by Placing Large Bets on Polymarket
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have long had a reputation for facilitating cheating and insider trading; For example, it allows an athlete to bet on a match that he may later knowingly lose.
There is now compelling evidence that someone with inside knowledge of the Trump administration’s plans for regime change in Venezuela used that prior knowledge to profit greatly from the conflict.
As researcher Tyson Brody found, an unidentified user bet tens of thousands of dollars on various predictions that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would become president in the near future.outside“or US forces will appear”by in Venezuela“A specific date in preparation for the breach.
“The account only existed for a week and quickly became the biggest ‘yes’ in the Maduro foreign market,” Brody said. he tweeted.
Given the highly suspicious timing, the evidence of insider trading is at least compelling. The account invested more than $30,000 in less than two days to the United States started the invasion Kidnap Maduro and his wife and “make a $400,000 profit in less than 24 hours,” as sports entrepreneur Joe Pompliano calculated in a survey. Publish on Bluesky.
“It looks pretty suspicious!” he added. “[Secretary of defense] Pete Hegseth making beer money on the side?” Brody joked.
“Insider trading is not only allowed in prediction markets, it is encouraged,” Pompliano said.
Who is behind the Polymarket account is still a mystery. Accounts on marketplaces like Polymarket are anonymous and payments are in cryptocurrency, making them difficult to track.
Like Semaphore reported Over the weekend, news organizations also received early intelligence about the US raid on Venezuela but delayed publishing the information to avoid endangering US soldiers.
In other words, could he have been an insider in a newsroom in New York or Washington trying to make money, or was he an agent within the Trump administration?
Prediction markets have long expressed concerns about exactly this type of situation. For example, a Polymarket user He earned $1 million in 24 hours In early December, after betting on Google’s 2025 Search Trends rankings. Per Forbesthe account had a “near-perfect record, with correct predictions on 22 out of 23 attempts.”
Like American Expectation pointingCritics of the Trump administration have long accused officials of engaging in similar behavior. Management is also allowed the prediction market to evolve By abandoning enforcement cases and failing to introduce meaningful regulations in the crypto world.
Even Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), which owns the president’s social network Truth Social, entered the prediction markets business The past year has shown a clear appetite for this area.
“Of course insiders shouldn’t be able to get rich off policy decisions – but what’s even more worrying is the possibility that people are distorting policy outcomes to get a return on their bets,” said Sean Vitka, managing director of Demand Progress. American Expectation.
One thing is certain: While insiders profit, those who do not have this privileged knowledge lose – and when bets are placed on a deadly conflict, innocent people will also suffer.
“Questions about whether and when military action might be taken are particularly vulnerable to such manipulation because the president often acts with discretion regarding timing and without notice (legally or not) to the public or Congress,” Vitka added.
More about Polymarket: New App Allows Users to Bet on Deadly Conflicts in Real Time
