Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

The war with Iran will remain the main driver of market action next week as investors hope for a resolution to the conflict. But it will affect the market in other ways, too: On Friday, we'll get our first look at how the war-related rise in oil prices plays out in inflation data. While the end of the war likely means the stock market has bottomed out, we should avoid getting too bullish too soon, even if Thursday's volatile session ends on an encouraging note with the S&P 500 slightly higher. The war isn't over until it's over, and things can change every minute, not every day. The Trump administration may say it expects the war to end in two to three weeks, but both sides need to end the war. Indeed, there has been a further escalation in clashes this weekend. As long as missiles and drones continue to fly and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, things have the potential to get out of control. 1. Oil prices: One of the biggest lessons from last week is that movements in oil tell the real story. Of course, open interest has something to do with the magnitude of the recovery on Tuesday and Wednesday. But right now the oil market is the sun around which the stock market revolves. While it is true that stocks fell while oil rose in the first days of the war, it is equally true that stocks rebounded when oil prices fell, as happened on Tuesday and Wednesday. To be sure, Thursday's session was something of an exception to this inverse relationship between oil and stocks. This does not change the main conclusion: if the war really ends soon, it seems safe to assume that oil prices will fall further, which in turn will increase confidence that an affordable base has been reached in stocks. Now let's make a caveat: Messages from Washington and Tehran are mixed, and we need to consider a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed even though the war is declared over. President Donald Trump has suggested he could end the conflict before the vital shipping line is opened. While this idea is in the air, we saw oil drop on Tuesday and Wednesday, so the most important thing for energy markets may be the end of the missiles' flight. However, if the war was "over" and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was still at least partially restricted (perhaps by Iran charging tolls on boats sailing at sea), it is hard to imagine that the geopolitical premium priced on oil would not be high. In this scenario, perhaps oil could reach $150 to $200 a barrel, but returning to the low $60s any time soon seems a long way off. We've talked at length about the impact of high oil prices on the global economy and corporate profits; So while investors will certainly welcome the end of the war, until we see further relief in oil prices, it's hard to call it clear and argue that new highs will be imminent. As a result, we expect the stock market to remain volatile next week as updates on the Iran war continue to arrive. A US warplane was shot down in Iran on Friday. And in an expletive-laden social media post on Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz wasn't opened to all traffic by Tuesday. But our job as long-term investors is to cut through the headline noise and determine which dynamics will have lasting impacts on our portfolio companies. Of course, oil prices are an example of this. 2. Inflation data: Another dynamic that is of great importance regarding oil is inflation, which brings us to next week's macroeconomic updates. They will give the Federal Reserve new data to work with as it determines the path forward for the overnight lending rate. They will also give the bond market new information to consider at the longer end of the yield curve (like the 10-year Treasury bill); This is where interest rates become much more important for things like mortgages and auto loans. In the long term, investors' expectations for inflation, economic growth and fiscal policy are decisive. At the short end of the curve, we find notes like the 2-year Treasury bond that are more sensitive to Fed policy. The Fed's dual missions are price stability and maximum employment. We received good news on the labor market front on Friday, with the March employment report coming in well above expectations. Attention now shifts to the price stability front with a pair of inflation reports. The big update comes on Friday when we get the consumer price index (CPI) for March. This is the top priority report of the week because it will reflect the beginning of the war with Iran. As of Thursday, economists expect to see a 2.7% year-over-year increase in both core and core (excluding food and energy) indexes, according to FactSet. In February, headline CPI increased by 2.4% on an annual basis and core CPI increased by 2.5%. The morning before the CPI, February consumer spending and income report will be announced. Normally, we'd say this is the most important release of the week because it includes the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, known as the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. But Thursday's PCE index will include February data as the government tries to get economic updates back on track after the lockdown at the end of last year. This means it would cover a month where oil was still trading in the low-to-mid $60s/bbl, making it a bit stale compared to the March CPI. But these are not useless data. Instead, consider that it provides an important basis for how consumers sought purchasing power before the war began. Economists expect to see a 3% increase in core PCE (excluding food and energy), according to FactSet's report on Thursday. Apart from inflation updates, we'll also check in on the services sector with the release of the Institute for Supply Management's Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March on Monday; Our latest reading on gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Thursday; and an update on manufacturing activity with the release of February factory orders on Friday. These aren't exactly market-moving releases on their own, especially given that war is clouding the outlook, but think of them as individual pixels that help us understand the broader economic picture. 3. Earnings: While next week's earnings calendar is light (no Club names on it), there are three important reports to watch. The most important of these is Delta Air Lines, which reported Wednesday morning. Delta and the entire airline industry are uniquely exposed to the price of oil because it is one of the largest operating costs for an airline, next to labor. In its most recent annual report, Delta explained that "a one-cent increase in the cost of jet fuel per gallon would result in additional annual fuel expenses of approximately $40 million based on annual jet fuel consumption of approximately four billion gallons." In other words, it is a product of success or failure in terms of their financial results. Of course, Delta will also provide insight into consumers' appetite for travel in the face of these higher fuel costs (and the resulting increased ticket costs). One caveat to note: Delta tends to serve higher-end consumers who are more capable of absorbing price increases and arranging their trips anyway. "We live at the higher end of the 'K' that people talk about, the premium end of the 'K.' That's where over 90 percent of our revenue comes from. That group of people want to travel," CEO Ed Bastian said during an appearance on CNBC two weeks ago. He noted at the time that Delta was still seeing strong connections, so we'll be listening on Wednesday to see if there's any change in management's tone or outlook. Note that even if Delta reports that its wealthy customers are still purchasing higher-priced tickets, this will be reflected in future inflation reports. It is important to keep this in mind when interpreting inflation data. Of course, the Fed prefers to look at core inflation indexes that exclude energy costs, but energy-related costs passed on to consumers (in this case through higher ticket costs) will certainly be included in the calculations of other items. This is not good for the economy. If customers start to shy away from plane tickets due to rising prices, that won't be good for the economy either. There are two additional reports that will provide insight into the state of consumer spending. Denim brand Levi Strauss comes first on Tuesday night, followed by Modelo brewer Constellation Brands on Wednesday night. Next week Monday, April 6 at 10 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI Tuesday, April 7 After the bell: Levi Strauss (LEVI) Wednesday, April 8 at 2 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve's March Meeting Minutes Before the bell: Delta Air Lines (DAL), RPM international (RPM) After the bell: Constellation Brands (STZ) Thursday, April 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET: Fourth Quarter GDP (read: Final) 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Unemployment Claims 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Spending and Income Report Before the bell: BlackBerry (BB), Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Friday, April 10 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index 10 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI 10 a.m. ET: Factory Orders (See here for a full list of Jim Cramer's Charitable stocks. Count on it.) CNBC Investing with Jim Cramer When you subscribe to the Club, you will receive a transaction alert before Jim makes a transaction. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trading alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable foundation's portfolio. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he would wait 72 hours after issuing the trading alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH THE DISCLAIMERS. NO CIVIL OBLIGATIONS OR DUTIES EXIST OR SHALL BE RESULTING FROM YOUR RECEIVING ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO SPECIFIC RESULT OR PROFIT CAN BE GUARANTEED.