Beyond the Begums: Bangladesh’s first post-Hasina election becomes a battle of the ‘prodigal son’ and the Islamists- Expert explains | World News

Bangladesh is at a crossroads with the February 12 elections set to be held in just two days, marking the first election since Sheikh Hasina’s dramatic ouster in 2024 during deadly student protests in July.

Think of it as a change in the neighborhood: the Awami League, or the long-time boss, is out; cousins ​​Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami are waging this fight; Major powers such as India, the United States, China and Pakistan are watching closely, ready to steer alliances.

Former diplomat and foreign policy analyst KP Fabian draws a stark parallel to a high-stakes election in Bangladesh to get a more comprehensive picture of the internal drama in Dhaka and the global ripples it created along with developments.

Political Concussion in Dhaka

A major change in Bangladesh’s leadership and power structure began with massive protests by Generation Z. Let’s look ahead to July 2024 to get a clear picture of the latest developments in Bangladesh. A Gen Z protest against unfair government job quotas that reserved 30% of places for relatives of 1971 war heroes sparked nationwide outrage, with police and ruling party thugs cracking down hard, leaving more than 1,400 people dead and thousands injured.

These students from Dhaka University and other areas turned their street marches into a full-blown “Monsoon Revolution”, blocking roads, shutting down the internet and facing tear gas and bullets for weeks until Sheikh Hasina’s static government of the last 15 years was overthrown, forcing her to flee to New Delhi in August 2024.

Nobel laureate Muhammad Younis stepped in as interim leader, releasing BNP’s Khaleda Zia, lifting the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami and later banning Awami League in May 2025 over protest deaths.

This chaos paved the way for the February 12, 2026 elections; There is no Awami League, BNP’s Tarique Rahman is returning from exile and the Jamaat is engaging with students through the National Citizen Party (NCP).

Voters are now choosing between former rivals in a freer but fragile environment. Experts call it a blow to “democratic integrity”, but many locals welcome a fresh start after years of fear.

The streets of Dhaka gave birth to this shake-up that transformed Bangladesh from one-party control to a high-stakes BNP-Jamaat contest with global eyes watching.

Awami League’s Ban: A Wound to Democracy or a New Beginning?

The Awami League’s ban in the upcoming Bangladesh elections could be portrayed more as losing your voice in a family argument.

The Awami League, which ruled for 15 years under Hasina, is in danger of being completely banned by the interim government led by Muhammad Younis. Registrations suspended, activities halted following 2024 protest deaths.

Former diplomat and foreign relations expert KP Fabian explains that banning the Awami League has definitely cast a shadow on democratic integrity and credibility in the eyes of democracy observers. However, a significant segment of the public or voters in Bangladesh may not agree; many see this as justice against Hasina’s fascist regime.

Although Yunus called for transparent elections, banning one of the major political parties does not seem to support Yunus’s claims.

Tarique Rahman’s Return: Is Sympathy Fueling BNP’s Rise?

BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman returned to Bangladesh after 17-20 years in exile in London on corruption charges following Hasina’s ouster.

The timing took a toll on the heels of the death of his mother and former Prime Minister Halide Zia, sparking emotional eulogies and “sympathy votes” that experts said would surely boost the BNP’s vote bank in the February 12 polls.

Voters’ turn to the “prodigal son” strengthens the BNP’s moderate appeal to the anti-Hasina crowd, minorities and urbanites. This puts Tarique steadily at the front of a fragmented race.

Shocking Polls: Is BNP Against Jamaat-e-Islami?

After Sheikh Hasina left power, the Jamaat-e-Islami ban ended. The party later teamed up with the NCP, the young Gen Z student group that led the “Monsoon Revolution” protests that toppled him.

These energetic student protesters at the barricades joined forces with the more organized Islamist group, bringing them into close competition with the BNP.

Experts state that Jamaat-e-Islami formed an alliance with young students who formed a new party after their protests resulted in the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. Former diplomat KP Fabian describes it as the combination of Jamaat-e-Islami with Generation Z students. Some polls show Rahman winning a majority, while others show Jamaat-e-Islami trailing closely behind.

The expert states that they cannot predict the exact outcome, but it will depend on one of the two: BNP or Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP is ahead.

Global Powers Are Monitoring Polls in Bangladesh

The February 12 elections are not just Dhaka’s drama; The pivot of South Asia. Experts note how the United States leads diplomacy. “He will have a significant impact on the new government,” KP Fabian said.

China, Pakistan and the US already have influence and this may not be good for New Delhi. The expert calls for smart diplomacy to safeguard India’s needs. Trade and security links are at risk in this major power shift.

A former diplomat says China appears determined to remain strong no matter which government wins in Bangladesh, and America has a similar advantage.

India’s Rope: From Hasina’s Fade to Neighbor Enemy?

Experts say India’s decision to grant asylum to Sheikh Hasina was correct, but encouraging her to stay here and support her political work may not be wise.

BNP and Jamaat manifestos focus on “Bangladesh first”; This means Hasina withdrawing from her close ties with India and drawing clear lines on issues such as water sharing.

Tensions are high due to attacks on minorities and calls for Hasina’s extradition. Experts warn that this could sour India-Bangladesh relations.

But India is not in the same position. The expert clearly warns: If any Bangladeshi leader thinks that he can establish deep ties with Pakistan and China by ignoring India or remaining hostile to India, that leader is just chasing a ‘mirage’.