When the Supreme Leader emerges, he’ll be leading a changed Iran

After the country spent about two weeks in Iran during the war with Israel, the 86 -year -old leader Ayatollah Ali Khanei may want to use the opportunity to go out of the ceasefire.

Israel is believed to have suffered injustice because of the fear of being assassinated. Apparently, even senior government officials did not contact him.

Despite the fragile ceasefire that US President Donald Trump and Qatar Emir mediate, it is recommended to be cautious. Although President Trump told Israel not to kill Iran’s highest leader, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not exclude it.

Whenever – or indeed – will see a view of death and destruction if it occurs from hiding. Undoubtedly, the state will still appear on TV, which claims victory in the conflict. He will plan to restore his image. But he will encounter new facts – even a new era.

The war weakened the country significantly and decreased to it.

During the war, Israel quickly controlled most of Iran’s airspace and attacked its military infrastructure. Revolutionary Guards and the senior commanders of the army were rapidly killed.

The scope of the damage to the army is still uncertain and controversial, but the repeated bombings of the army and the revolutionary guard bases and facilities indicate a significant deterioration of Iran’s military power. Militarization has long been consumed the country’s resources.

Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are known to win approximately twenty years and international sanctions, an estimated hundreds of billions of dollars, are damaged by air strikes, although it is difficult to fully evaluate it. What was all for, many ask.

Numerous Iranians will be responsible for establishing Ayatullah Khanei, the leader in 1989 in a collision course with Israel and the United States, and will ultimately bring a significant destruction to his country and people.

They will blame him for following the ideological purpose of the destruction of Israel – something that many Iranians do not support. They will blame him for what they perceive as a madness – the belief that reaching the nuclear status will make the regime invincible. The sanctions injured the Iranian economy and reduced the best oil exporter to a fought shadow of the poor and old self.

“It is difficult to predict how long the Iranian regime can survive under such a significant coercion, but it looks like the beginning of the end,” he says.

“Ali Khamenei will literally be the last ‘supreme leader’ of the Islamic Republic.”

There are opposition murmurs on top. At the summit of the war, a semi -formal Iranian news agency reported that some former regime figures called the quietest religious scholars in the holy city of the country, which was separate from Ayatullah, to create a change in the leadership separate from Ayatullah.

According to Professor Ali Ansari, Founding Director of the Institute of Iran Studies University, St Andrews University.

“There are great disputes in leadership and there is great unhappiness among ordinary people.”

For the last two weeks, many Iranians have struggled with conflicting emotions of the need for defense against their deep hatred against the regime. They walked for the country, they went out to look at each other, not to defend the regime. There are great solidarity and proximity reports.

People in the towns and villages outside the urban areas knocked on each other’s doors to ask those who escaped from bombings in their cities, with low basic goods, neighbors needed something.

However, many people were aware of that Israel was probably looking for a regime change in Iran. A regime change that many Iranians wanted. However, they can draw the line to a regime change designed and imposed by foreign forces.

Ayatollah Khanei, one of the longest autocrats in the world for about 40 years of its rule, reduced any opposition in the country. The opposition political leaders fled either in prison or from the country. Abroad, the opposition figures could not create a stance that united the opposition to the regime.

If the opportunity emerged, it has been ineffective in the establishment of any analogy of an organization that can take over within the country.

And for two weeks of the war, when the collapse of the regime could be a possibility, if the war continued cruelly, many of them believed that the possible scenario for a day was not the inheritance of the opposition, but the land of the country to chaos and lawlessness.

Prof Khatib, “Iranian regime is unlikely to overthrow the local opposition. The regime remains strong at home and accelerates local pressure to crush the opposition, Prof says Prof Khatib.

The Iranians are now afraid of further stuck by the regime. At least six people have been executed in the last two weeks since the war with Israel on charges of espionage for Israel. Authorities say they have arrested 700 people in this accusation.

A Iranian woman told BBC that she was more afraid of the death and destruction of the war, a regime that turned her anger against her own people.

“If the regime cannot provide basic goods and services, it will be increasing anger and disappointment,” Prof Ansari says.

“I see this as a gradual process. In a popular sense, I don’t see it as something that will root shortly after the bombing is over.”

A small number of people in Iran think that the ceasefire will continue on Monday – and many of them believe that Israel has not yet ended because they have total superiority in the sky in Iran.

Something that seems to have escaped from destruction is the ballistic missile silos of Iran, where Israel is forced to find it because it is placed in tunnels under the mountains.

Israeli Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir, Israel’s opening attack against Iran “Iran has missiles from 2,500 surfaces to the surface,” he said. The missiles fired by Iran caused significant death and destruction in Israel.

Israel will still worry about the remaining 1,500 in the hands of the Iranian side.

In Tel Aviv, Washington and other Western and regional capitals, there is still a serious concern that Iran can still hurry to build a nuclear bomb, which continues to try to do it.

Iran’s nuclear facilities have almost certainly returned and probably, although Israel and the United States have become useless during the bombings, Iran said that it has carried its highly enriched uranium stock to a safe hidden place.

According to experts, 60% uranium stock is a relatively easy step if it is enriched to 90%, a relatively easy step. Just before the war began, Iran announced that it has built a new secret facility for the enrichment to be published soon.

The Iranian Parliament voted to sharply reduce cooperation with the UN’s atomic keeper, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This still requires approval, but if Iran passed, the Nuclear weapon would be one step away from exiting the prevention of spreading, supporting the NPT-Yüce Leader, Hardliners supported the pushing of Iran to Breakout to build a bomb.

Ayatullah Khamenei can now be sure that the regime survives. However, at the age of 86, and at the age of 86, he also knows that his own days can be numbered, and with a regular power transition of the regime, he may want to ensure the continuity of another senior clergy or even a leadership council.

In any case, the best remaining commanders of the revolutionary guards who are loyal to the Supreme Leader may be trying to use power behind the scenes.

Best Picture Loan: Pacific Press through Getty

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