Who supports Reform and why? The charts that show who favours Farage’s party | Reform UK
The research, based on a survey of 11,000 Reform UK supporters – the largest survey of its kind – tells us more about who plans to vote for the party than was previously known.
In-depth voting analysis Hope Not Hate It reveals a coalition of voters ranging from struggling workers and disillusioned graduates to wealthy pensioners in places from Hitchin to Runcorn.
While immigration is often seen as the defining issue for Reform supporters, the data reveal a much more complex picture. This diverse coalition is deeply divided on big issues like the economy, the climate crisis and the role of government.
The charts below, based on a survey of 11,342 Reform supporters, show how the Reformation’s followers ranged in age, class and geography, revealing five distinct groups of voters whose priorities were diametrically opposed. Together they capture a movement united by anger and distrust but divided over identity, economics and the direction of Britain.
Who are the reform supporters?
The research divides them into five groups based on their attitudes towards different issues. These groups are “right-wing workers,” “hardline conservatives,” “stable stewards,” “dissident youth,” and “reluctant reformers.” They differ in some important ways.
working correctly
26% of those who want to vote for reform
Economically insecure and angry, these older working-age voters confuse pro-worker attitudes with hostility to immigration. They feel betrayed by elites, see immigrants as competitors for scarce resources, and are the most loyal to the populist message of the Reformation.
strict conservatives
18%
Affluent, older and ideologically right-wing, this group is deeply anti-immigrant and socially conservative. They oppose workers’ rights and government spending. They often look like disillusioned Tory loyalists and traditionalists, but they are distrustful of climate action and attracted to Nigel Farage.
Pressed officers
29%
Concerned, middle-income voters who are hostile to immigration but care strongly about nature, justice, and local control. Feeling politically ignored, they confuse cultural conservatism with environmental concern and want to see improvements in the cost of living.
Reluctant reformers
19%
The most moderate group supports the Reformation out of frustration with mainstream politics rather than faith. They are pragmatic and justice-oriented; They value competence, stability and public services, especially the NHS. They are the most persuadable people.
deviant youth
9%
Young, diverse and politically volatile, they combine cynicism, conspiracy thinking and optimism. Many distrust the institution but are open to new ideas, have socially conservative views of gender but are more tolerant of race and multiculturalism.
Group demographics
The survey reveals the diversity among the different groups of voters the party can rely on. Although half of Reform voters surveyed are over 55, groups such as reluctant reformers and dissident youth are younger.
While only two in five people have a diploma or higher qualifications, in the opposition youth group this rate rises to three fifths.
Those who supported the reform were also asked about their socioeconomic status. A third reported a pre-tax household income of less than £25,000, with half earning between £25,000 and £70,000. While a total of 13 percent are in the upper income group, this rate rises to 23 percent in the opposite youth group.
A third (36%) of reform supporters are desperate or worried about their finances. This is especially true for right-wing and opposition youth groups.
Hardline conservatives have better prospects or think they are better off.
What does this mean for Reformation’s policy platform?
The diversity of the party’s support base has important implications for policy.
Some of the biggest tensions are between the workers’ right, generally based in poorer towns and northern constituencies, and hard-line conservatives in wealthier southern counties.
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For the working right, the cost of living crisis is the defining issue: 65% call it their biggest concern, while 49% of hard-line conservatives tend to focus on the economy more broadly.
The sharpest division is on immigration and asylum. Although three in five potential Reform voters (58%) see this as a major issue, this figure drops to just 20% among dissident young people and rises to 77% among hardline conservatives; This shows how the Reform coalition has blended economic populists, traditional conservatives and disaffected young voters under one uneasy banner.
Looking at broader attitudes, the polls also reveal other divisions within the coalition that may be difficult for Farage to bridge.
While reluctant reformers and dissenting youth tend to hold pro-immigration views, this stands in stark contrast to the hostility of the rest of the coalition, especially the working right.
A similar fault line is seen in the climate crisis. While hardline rulers broadly support action against climate change, hardline conservatives are among the most skeptical, often rejecting the idea of human-caused global warming altogether.
The gap is equally wide when it comes to workers’ rights. The labor right favors better wages and protections, while hardline conservatives oppose most pro-worker policies.
Analysts note how these data underline the tension between the economic populist wing of the Reformation and the free market wing.
I’m looking towards the election
The analysis also maps where these supporters are concentrated across the country and compares this to their current voting intentions.
The Labor right, which is the main basis for reform, is based in constituencies in the north and east of England, particularly in post-industrial and coastal areas outside the major cities. These voters, often economically insecure and alienated from Westminster, pose a serious threat to Reformation in “red wall” seats where even small changes in turnout could upset tight races.
Hardline Tories and stuck-up rulers are anchoring Reformation’s support further south, in rural, coastal and suburban areas stretching from the Midlands to Kent and Wales.
Their existence suggests that Reformation’s unpopularity was not just a northern rebellion, but a double challenge for the establishment parties: it was robbing disillusioned working-class voters from Labour, while eating away at the Tories’ traditional heartlands with a mix of populist anger and cultural conservatism.
The maps below show that in some north-west seats of England right-wing voters make up 40% of estimated Reform supporters, but in south-east areas hard-line conservatives make up more than a third.
The report also revealed 301 constituencies where the number of squeezed representatives, both those who previously voted for Reform and new voters, exceeded the margin the party needed to roll over to win the seat at the next election.
With 264 seats dominated by the Labor right and hardline conservatives at 207, it shows how even small shifts in support for these groups can be decisive in dozens of hard-fought battles.
You can search the table below to find out how many of these Reform voters are in each constituency and the results of the predictions from MRP modeling for Hope Not Hate.
Will Do stuck stewards decide whether there is a Reform majority?
The largest group in the party’s voter structure are squeezed representatives, who make up 29% of all Reform supporters. Voters in this group share some values on immigration, but they are also concerned about the cost of living, the future, and nature.
Squeezed stewards mostly switched from Conservative to Reform at the 2019 or 2024 general election. There are also voters leaving Labor in 2024.
Some of these voters live in constituencies predicted to have narrow margins if an election were held tomorrow; so their votes could decide whether those seats will shift to Reform or another party that appeals to their concerns.
There are 20 seats; More than 35% of the Reform electorate are stewards, and the margin is less than 10%. These include Hitchin (Labour predicted to win by a 0.33% margin), Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven (Reform margin 1%) and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Reform margin 2%).
Anki Deo, who leads Hope Not Hate’s policy and insights team, says identifying these groups and where they live is vital “in an age of hyper-marginal politics where election outcomes are determined by just a few percentage points.”
He adds: “For those of us desperate to avoid a Farage-led government in 2029, this research shows us that all is not lost. “Reform voters in the UK do not fit one profile or ideology. Far from a homogeneous group, they are a broad coalition with many voters holding very different and contradictory views.
“Somewhat oddly, the rise of Reform UK is often viewed almost entirely from an immigration perspective. But our survey shows that these voters also have deep concerns about financial insecurity and economic inequality. For some voters in Reform UK, the cost of living is twice as important as immigration.
“Therefore, improving our economy and public services, focusing on workers’ rights, and championing multiculturalism are the most effective ways not only to combat the far right, but also to win elections.”
Methodology
The survey and segmentation conducted by Hope Not Hate was based on a sample of 11,342 people who said they would vote for Reform if there was a general election tomorrow. This sample comes from a national survey of 43,335 people conducted by Focaldata between August 1 and September 11, 2025, on behalf of Hope Not Hate.
The survey was weighted to be nationally representative using 2024 general election votes along with 2021 census data on age, gender, region and education.
The constituency segment proportion used for the table and map was calculated from this sample, but the predicted proportion and seat margin for Reform was calculated from the voting intention of the largest sample of 43,335 people.
People were grouped into segments using multidimensional factor analysis to group questions by theme and indices were developed that placed individual respondents on an axis representing polarization of views, and Gaussian mixed modeling was used to identify clusters of respondents who shared similar political values and attitudes based on factors.
