India’s wheat production resilient despite setbacks: Agri ministry
The Roller Flour Millers Federation of India (RFFI) on April 24 estimated wheat production for the 2025-26 crop year (July-June) at 110.65 million tonnes; This is slightly higher than the 109.63 million tonnes produced in 2024-25 when damage from recent weather conditions is taken into account.
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The projection is well below the ministry’s pre-weather forecast of 120.21 million tonnes, which was higher than the 117.94 million tonnes recorded the previous year.
Food Minister Sanjeev Chopra tried to bridge the gap between the two estimates. “While the Federation estimates wheat production as 110 million tons, the figure given by the Ministry of Agriculture before the rain is 120 million tons. The reality will be between 110 and 120 million tons,” he said.
In a statement, the ministry described the current wheat season as “chaotic but resilient”, shaped by both climatic adversities and strong adaptation measures taken by farmers.
An estimated 33.4 million hectares of wheat have been planted this season, and no cases of insect pests or diseases have been reported. Early and timely planting led to an increase in the planted area compared to the previous year. However, unusually high temperatures in February subjected the crop to heat stress, shortening grain filling time and affecting yield. Untimely rains and ripe hailstorms caused localized damage to grain quality and yield in some areas.
The ministry noted several factors that are expected to offset losses due to weather conditions.
An additional 0.6 million hectares of land will be cultivated in 2025-26, which will partially compensate for local losses, the ministry said. Early and timely planting allowed the crop to recover from lethal heat stress during the critical grain filling phase.
The higher varietal replacement rate (VRR) has also accelerated the adoption of high-yielding, climate-resilient and disease-resistant seed varieties that are better equipped to withstand heat and biotic stresses, the ministry said.
Weed infestation was also reported to be low during the growing stages of the crop.
“The adverse impacts of weather anomalies are expected to be largely offset by increased area, early sowing and adoption of improved varieties, thus supporting stable national wheat production by the 2024-25 crop season,” the ministry said. he said.
Procurement data from key wheat-growing states pointed to healthy production levels in the field.
In Haryana, the amount of wheat arriving at mandis has already exceeded the government’s procurement target of 75 lakh tonnes. with 56.13 lakhsIt has already been purchased – an increase of around 9 lakh tonnes over the same period last year.
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Meanwhile, Madhya Pradesh has revised its purchasing target upwards from 78 lakh tonnes to 100 lakh tonnes on the request of the state government, citing higher than expected production.
Maharashtra’s 2025-26 wheat production is estimated to be around 22.90 lakh tonnes, with a steady increase in recent years. Steady inflows were reported from Marathwada and Vidarbha regions by the end of April.
“While local impacts due to weather conditions are observed, the overall wheat production scenario for 2025-26 remains stable and resilient, supported by increased acreage, improved agronomic practices and adoption of improved varieties,” the ministry said. he said.
