China’s pressure on Japan is a familiar tactic that could last for some time

BEIJING (AP) — Just days after China issued a recommendation Cancellations against travel to Japan have begun.

Every year, about 3,000 Chinese people visit Rie Takeda’s tea room, located in a side street in Tokyo’s historic Asakusa district. Nearly 200 people have already canceled their reservations tea ceremony class is ahead by January.

“I hope Chinese tourists will return by Chinese New Year,” he said, referring to the major holiday period in February. Past experience suggests it may take longer than that.

The Chinese government is undergoing a transformation good used playbook To express Japan’s displeasure with its new prime minister’s refusal to retract his statement on the hot issue of Taiwan.

like him Tariffs on Australian wines Due to restrictions on Philippine banana imports in 2020 and restrictions on Philippine banana imports in 2012, Beijing is using its economic influence to pressure Tokyo and is also throwing bananas. a flood of insults in his own government. The only question is how far China will go and how long the measures will last.

“China’s countermeasures are all kept secret and will be implemented one by one,” said Liu Jiangyong, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “Anything is possible because it involves the foundation of the country’s core interests.”

Disputes may last more than a year

China is angry with the statement of the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi It was said earlier this month that China’s military could step in if it moves against Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing says should come under its rule.

Japan is trying to stay afloat vendetta It avoided an uptick but showed no signs of backing down. This dovetails with how some other governments have responded to China’s pressure: Stick to their positions and endure the pain, letting disputes fester for a year or more.

“The diplomatic challenge for both sides is that they have their own domestic audience, so they don’t want to be perceived as backing down,” said Sheila A. Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of “Intimate Rivals,” a book on Japan-China relations.

Disagreements with many countries continued until political change brought a new leader unburdened by past statements.

Australia’s trade with China is increasing back to normal The latest step since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s election in 2022 was the reopening of the lobster market. Canada is the last country to start repair relationships Under new Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Travel advice is starting to bite

This is not the first time Japan has faced China’s economic wrath. In 2012, protesters attacked Japanese businesses in China and boycotted their goods following a dispute over a group of uninhabited islands claimed by both countries. Group tours to Japan were cancelled.

Based on what happened at the time, when Chinese visitors fell by a quarter, Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi estimated that the current travel advisory could cost Japan 1.8 trillion yen ($11.5 billion) and cut its already low annual economic growth by 0.3 percentage points.

Many group tours have been canceled again, affecting businesses that rely on these tours. Gamagori Hotel in central Japan’s Aichi prefecture said it lost more than 2,000 guests. Nichu Syomu, a Japan-based tour company focusing on Chinese tourists, said 300 reservations were canceled, making the loss comparable to 2012.

China was on track to displace South Korea this year and return to its pre-pandemic position as the biggest source of tourists to Japan. More than 8 million Chinese visited in the first 10 months of this year, or 23% of the total, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization.

Nichu Syomu tour operator Nana Enomoto stated that Chinese tourism was just starting to recover and said, “This is a shame.”

Some Chinese tourists cancel. Others don’t do this

Kyren Zhu, who had never been to Japan, agonized over this decision. His family warned him not to go. He eventually canceled a trip to see the fall leaves with an accountant friend. His friend went ahead and told him there was nothing unusual.

“If I had known, I probably would have left,” he said. “But that’s hard to say. The situation is really beyond our control.”

Beijing native Livia Du, who opened a ski resort in northern Japan last year, received two cancellations; but these cancellations were quickly filled by other Chinese.

One client told him that since China had taken a clear stance, he too had to adapt. Another works for a state-owned company and said staff had been instructed not to visit Japan in the near future.

Du, who quit her job and invested more than 2 million yuan ($280,000) with her husband to build the hostel in Hokkaido, said guests appeared to be in wait-and-see mode. He was worried that the situation might get worse.

China warns it may take further steps

Last week saw the pressure spread to other sectors. The Chinese release of two Japanese movies has been abruptly postponed – the comedy “Cells at Work!” and the animated film “Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! The Spicy Kasukabe Dancers.”

A comedy festival in Shanghai canceled shows for a Japanese entertainment company, while a book publishing editor said his boss told him to put a project to import a Japanese comic book on hold.

Prospects for seafood exports to China remained uncertain even after Tokyo denied reports that Beijing had reversed its decision. Lift 2 year ban About Japanese seafood.

When asked about the reports, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said Japan had failed to provide the technical documentation needed to resume exports.

China may also target exports of rare earths, which are vital for auto manufacturing and other industries. Beijing finds minerals America’s Achilles heel when it restricted its exports earlier this year.

“Japan should first retract its erroneous remarks and take concrete steps to safeguard the political basis of China-Japan relations,” Mao said last week. “Otherwise, China will need to take further measures.”

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McGill reported from Tokyo. Associated Press writer Fu Ting in Washington contributed to this report.