960 homes approved for flood-prone north-western Sydney suburb
The NSW government has given the green light to almost 1000 new homes for a flood-prone suburb in Sydney’s north-west, two years after Planning Minister Paul Scully warned the development could put lives at risk.
The proposed project at Marsden Park North, comprising 960 homes and an employment centre, is located in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, which is considered by the state government to be Australia’s highest flood risk area.
Blacktown Council also warned there were critical gaps in the area’s funding, including “unresolved transport and evacuation infrastructure”.
The decision to proceed comes at a time when the province is struggling with a severe housing shortage. Despite widespread reform of zoning laws, the number of homes approved and completed remains below the level required to meet demand.
Developer Leamac Property Group first proposed the Marsden Park North site more than a decade ago with plans to build 6,000 homes for an estimated population of around 20,000. The proposal was rejected after flood discharge modeling found it would almost double the average annual number of people at risk of flood impacts in the catchment by 2041.
A statement issued by Scully and Western Sydney Minister Prue Car in October 2023 announcing the rejection of the proposal promised “no further construction in high-risk flood plains”.
“New developments may impact the ability of both new and existing residents to evacuate safely in emergencies, putting further lives at risk,” Scully said at the time.
“I would rather have a disappointed landowner confront me for a decision we made to keep them safe than to console them when they lost loved ones to floods.”
After two years, a public exhibition of a scaled-back version of the redevelopment plan – 960 homes and about 3,900 new businesses on 260 hectares of industrial land – ended Friday.
Flood evacuation modeling scenarios completed in 2023 found there would be an increase in risk to life from already approved development projects in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, even without further rezoning.
In July 2022, flooding in the valley reached 13.93 metres, the highest level since 1978, but remained well below the region’s worst recorded flood (19.6 meters in 1867). Insurers began limiting policies for floodplain homeowners after the 2022 disaster.
The new project will bring the homes to a 1 in 100 Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) level, functionally building the homes in areas with a 1 in 500 chance of flooding, with an additional three meter buffer to allow for climate change. Most of the areas bordered by the East and South creeks will be built in an area that is generally free from flooding, but maps show that in the event of the worst conceivable flood much of the area would be submerged.
Developers have objected to the use of the PMF level in planning decisions due to the very small probability of the event, assessed at between a one in 10,000 chance and a one in a million chance.
More development in flood-prone areas creates risks for those living upstream trying to evacuate, including areas such as Windsor, due to increased congestion on major roads.
A spokesman for Blacktown City Council said the proposal was “generally supportive” and identified the site as being used for employment in line with flood risk.
But the council identified “critical gaps” in funding for the transport and evacuation infrastructure needed to enable construction at the proposed flood planning level. Ways to finance repairs to community areas predicted to be damaged by flooding were also unclear.
Scully said the updated proposal aims to create land as an employment hub above the new flood planning level, reduce risk to community safety by building on less flood-prone land, and introduce stricter measures to assist with evacuations.
“This proposal is guided by flood modeling and expert advice and is consistent with the recommendations of the 2023 Flood Advisory Panels,” he said.
A spokesperson for the Insurance Council of Australia, who declined to talk about specific developments, said: “There are already more than 240,000 homes in Australia at risk of serious to extreme flooding; we should not be adding to this.”
Leamac co-founder Alexander Leaver declined to comment.
Leamac is a client of Iemma Patterson Premier Advisory, the lobbying firm co-founded by former Labor prime minister Morris Iemma. Emails released by Parliament reveal Iemma and Leamac were pushing to ensure some version of the development was successful; This included Leamac emailing the prime minister directly about his frustrations with the slow process.
Minutes of a June meeting of Minns, staff and bureaucrats show Leamac noting the department’s “lack of support for housing development due to flood risk.” The developer asked for Minns’ “continued support” to ensure the department makes rapid progress on the proposal.
A spokesperson for Minns said the plans managed risk in line with recommendations from the 2022 Flood Inquiry.
A department spokesman said it had refined the 2018 draft redevelopment proposal in close consultation with other agencies and Blacktown council, “taking strong account” of flooding between 2020 and 2022.
Greens planning spokeswoman Sue Higginson questioned Iemma’s influence on progressing the plan.
“The Minns-Labor government came to power with a clearly articulated vision that Western Sydney would no longer be exploited for development. It is now clear to all that this belief has been shattered when confronted by the property developer lobby,” he said.
Responding to questions, Iemma dismissed Higginson’s accusation as “factually incorrect” and “ignorant of the origins of the crime”. [the proposal]status and the actual process being carried out”.
Marsden Park North was seen as crucial to future housing and employment needs long before the Minns government was elected, he said.
“[The proposal] “This is an attempt to end years of paralysis that has stalled the region and prevented new job opportunities closer to home for Western Sydney residents,” he said. The decision was consistent with the establishment of Western Sydney Airport and the Mamre Road industrial centre.
In meetings with Minns in early 2024, Marsden refused to discuss Park North. Iemma stated that he did not attend the June meeting and said it was Leamac’s decision to meet with the prime minister instead of the planning minister.
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Max Maddison is the state political correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald.
