BMC elections: the rise of fluid alliances | Explained

TThe Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections have made Mumbai the epicenter of India’s most complex urban political contest. The unprecedented alliances, including the reunion of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), are clashing with the organizational dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shinde Sena Mahayuti, which has already gained a significant advantage with unchallenged victories. As the Congress leaves the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), new equations leave voters facing a difficult choice. The decision will shape not only Mumbai’s civic future but also the evolving political order of Maharashtra.

The BMC elections, scheduled for January 15 and counting on January 16, represent a high-stakes fight for control of India’s richest civic body, which has a budget of over Rs 74,000 crore.

Confusing alliances

Civic polls in Maharashtra highlight a complex web in which everyone is allied with everyone else and also against everyone else. What stood out was Uddhav-Raj Thackeray’s reunion with Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS, arch-rivals for decades, uniting against BJP-Shinde Sena domination and evoking Marathi pride and Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy through joint rallies. But the Congress, once a partner of Uddhav’s Sena as part of the MVA, rejected this “communal” MNS merger and broke ranks to form an alliance with the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA), which will contest 62 seats for Dalit minority consolidation.

The Mahayuti alliance (BJP-Shinde Sena) appears to be in line with the BJP having 137 seats and the Shinde-led Sena having 90 seats. However, despite official Fadnavis-Shinde protocols, underlying tensions over power sharing remain. Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) adds to the complexity; It is contesting alone with the BMC on 94 seats, but has formed an alliance with Sharad Pawar’s NCP in Pune, directly opposing its own Mahayuti partners. Parties are aggressively flirting with key voter blocs across camps: Dalits (Congress and VBA), Marathas (Thackerays), minorities (VBA) and women (BJP has 76 women candidates). At the same time, former allies are increasingly turning against each other. While Mahayuti sidelined Ajit Pawar’s NCP at the local level, the MVA splintered as it distanced itself from the Congress Sena (UBT). Meanwhile, the Thackerays selectively compromised to target Shinde’s splinter group. This shifting pattern of alliances, where today’s ally becomes tomorrow’s enemy, underscores a defining trend in contemporary Maharashtra politics.

Rise of factions in BMC

Shiv Sena’s factionalism since the split in 2019 has eroded the BMC stronghold that was once the Thackeray family stronghold, paving the way for the rise of the BJP. The 2017 elections marked this shift: from the classic Sena-BJP vs. Congress-NCP duel in 2012 (44.75% turnout) to a fragmented, multi-cornered contest in 2017. The Sena contested all 227 wards, winning 84 (most with vote share below 40%), but needed post-poll support from the BJP in a hung house (none managed to cross 114). BJP’s seat count increased from 31 to 82; Congress fell from 52 to 31; MNS fell from 28 to 7, damaging Sena’s strongholds. The organizational ascendancy of the BJP has signaled its rise, which has culminated in its currently unchallenged leadership.

Mahayuti, with whom the BJP and Shinde Sena are fighting together, commands early control of 68 BMC/civic seats unopposed (BJP on 44). This reflects the machinery of the BJP and the Shinde Sena’s recovery after the split, positioning them for a decisive victory. While the BJP’s 137 candidates, including 76 women, are targeting the Sena’s traditional turf, Shinde Sena’s 90 seats are based on coalition dynamics. Uddhav’s Sena-UBT and MNS bet on the discourse and youth mobilization of Marathi Manoos (natives of Maharashtra) through Aaditya/Amit Thackeray’s shakha tours. The Congress-VBA (165+62 seats) alliance is exploiting MVA fissures for Dalit influence and criticizing the Thackeray-MNS merger as divisive.

A new Mumbai

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), once a bastion of the Shiv Sena, has turned into a contested battleground shaped by shifting coalitions, identity politics and strategic alliances. This undoubtedly provides rich material for examining mandate fragility, regionalism, and power sharing in fragmented democracies. The “all against all” nature of the alliances in Mumbai underscores a new era in Indian electoral politics that requires deeper academic analysis.

As Mumbai approaches counting day, the BMC election stands as a referendum on Maharashtra’s new-age politics rather than a routine civic contest. The city is being asked to choose between memory and momentum: the emotional pull of the Thackeray legacy, now strangely reunited and politically weakened, against the organizational might of the BJP-Shinde Sena alliance. These elections will reveal whether Mumbai voters still see the Thackerays as the natural custodians of the city’s civic and cultural identity or are ready to support the post-partition reality where power has moved decisively away from the Shiv Sena (UBT).

Sanjay Kumar is a professor and election analyst. Arindam Kabir is a researcher at Lokniti-CSDS. The views expressed are personal. It does not reflect the views of their institutions.