UK threatens to seize Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker in escalatory move | Russia

Britain is threatening to seize a Russia-bound shadow fleet tanker in a move that escalates tensions that could lead to a new front against Moscow at a time when the country’s oil revenues are falling.

British defense sources have confirmed that military options for capturing a rogue ship have been identified in talks involving NATO allies; However, a month has passed since the US-led seizure of a Russian tanker in the Atlantic.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, 23 shadow fleet ships were detected using false or fraudulent flags in the Channel or Baltic Sea in January. Many are linked to the export of Russian oil, largely by water, to China, India and Türkiye.

A. joint statement The agreement, signed late last month by Britain, Germany, France and other NATO countries bordering the Baltic and Northern seas, stated that all ships passing through both regions must “strictly comply with applicable international law”. But although conditions were set for the seizure, nothing happened.

“The Royal Navy can object to any number of ships under maritime law because they are essentially stateless,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, a specialist maritime title. “But they haven’t done that because there are increased risks.”

Last month the Royal Marines held a briefing for British MPs and colleagues covering the threat from Russia and the situation in the Arctic and north. One of those present said the Marines “succeeded” in getting an order to seize a ship.

A month earlier, the US had chased the tanker Marinera from the Caribbean to the north Atlantic and captured it between Scotland and Iceland with the help of Britain. Although he had been mistakenly flagged when first approached, he had been re-registered as Russian while being pursued in an unsuccessful attempt to avoid capture.

Meade said afterwards that Russia’s complaints had been silenced, but that a British or European-led operation would be potentially more worrying because “Moscow would probably react more harshly”. He added that risks could be reduced if a seizure occurred away from Baltic or Arctic waters.

On January 22, before the signing of the joint statement, France detained the Grinch, an oil tanker, off the coast of Spain. It had left Murmansk, Russia, under the flag of Comoros, a country in East Africa; but a week later, French president Emmanuel Macron told his Ukrainian counterpart that he should be released due to French laws.

In late January, British defense secretary John Healey said Britain would host a meeting of the Baltic and Scandinavian countries to discuss “military options available to us.” He suggested that any seized oil could be sold and “given to Ukraine to fight Putin’s occupation.”

Russia produces about 10 million barrels of oil per day, according to Craig Kennedy of Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Although some of its 7 million daily exports are exported by pipeline, approximately 5-6 million per day travel by sea, 60% of which goes to China and India.

After Russia began its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the West slowly began to impose economic sanctions targeting the Kremlin’s ability to wage war.

A price ceiling was set on Russian seaborne crude oil exports, prompting Moscow to respond with estimated spending. $15 billion for the purchase of 400 aging tankersto create their own “shadow fleet”, usually over 20 years old.

“This is a collection of old, poorly maintained ships that are opaquely owned, often underinsured, and flying flags from jurisdictions with weak controls or enforcement efforts, and increasingly receiving false flags,” said Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin of the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K. think tank.

The idea was taken from Iran and Venezuela, which are already subject to sanctions, but Kennedy says Russia’s shadow fleet is actually separate.

The evasion of regulations that made the idea of ​​a shadow fleet attractive to Moscow also made it vulnerable. In fact, a ship’s flag is its own jurisdiction; However, if a ship uses a false or even multiple flags, it is effectively stateless and can therefore be seized in theory, although the exact legal interpretation varies in European countries.

It is unclear how much damage the seizure of one or two shadow fleet ships would do to Moscow’s economy. Since the end of November, seven shadow fleet tankers have been hit by drones; Ukraine claimed responsibility for four of them in the Mediterranean, including Qendil.

Data on oil export volumes compiled by Kennedy do not show a significant corresponding decline; Russia’s exports amount to more than 5 million barrels of oil per day, but volumes are lower than 6 million barrels per day in the autumn.

There are also signs that Moscow is responding to Western threats by re-registering its shadow fleet tankers under the Russian flag to avoid seizure. Marinera was one of 10 shadow fleet ships that flagged Russia in the Caribbean in December and January as part of unsuccessful efforts to break the US oil blockade of Venezuela.

While Russia’s mainstream, own-flag fleet is expanding, more than 200 Russian shadow fleet ships remain in operation. They now account for 51% of volumes and the price caps they are subject to can easily be waived.

Britain’s gunfire comes at a time when Russia’s economy looks more vulnerable than before, with the war boom fading and economic growth stagnating. Falling global oil prices, partly due to increased supplies from Venezuela, are hurting the Russian treasury.

Yuliia Pavytska, a sanctions expert at the Kiev School of Economics, said the Kremlin’s oil and gas revenues “will drop by 24% in 2025” to 8.5 trillion rubles. In 2025, they accounted for 22% of state revenue. 41% in 2022.

The economist argued that the EU was considering a complete ban on providing maritime services such as insurance to Russian ships, which would be “very painful” for Moscow, especially if accompanied by military action.