Aukus is among Australia’s worst foreign policy decisions and requires ‘heroic’ optimism, Gareth Evans says | Aukus

Former foreign secretary Gareth Evans said Aukus would be one of the worst defense and foreign policy decisions ever made by an Australian government and was only authorized by Donald Trump to destroy China’s nuclear threats to the US mainland.

In evidence to an independent public inquiry into the $368 billion nuclear deal with the US and UK on Thursday, Evans, who was a cabinet minister in the Hawke and Keating governments, will warn that the transfer and construction of submarines to Australia from the early 2030s is essentially an extension of the American military fleet.

He said a future US administration would not come to Australia’s aid in the event of an “existential attack” and would only assist in a military conflict if its own presence on Australian soil was threatened.

“Extended idea Nuclear deterrence justifies our prostration – the idea that the US would actually be prepared to sacrifice San Francisco for Sydney, let alone Miami for Melbourne, is, and always has been, a ludicrous illusion,” says Evans.

Evans, who was foreign secretary from 1988 to 1996, will tell a hearing in Melbourne that delivery of three Virginia-class submarines from the US from 2032 is unlikely due to construction delays and shortages in the US fleet, and that five new-design SSN-Aukus attack submarines to be built jointly by the UK and Australia would be extremely difficult.

He says the complexity and timeline of Aukus’ second phase require more “heroic levels of optimism” than are needed for American ships.

“Every report from the UK shows that, despite Australia’s commitment to spend $4.5 billion over 10 years to help increase production rates, the defense industrial base is currently under extraordinary stress and is likely to deteriorate further, with submarine building programs tightening and costs rising.”

Evans calls the price tag the government expects for the deal “purely speculative” and says the U.S. views the submarines as additional assets effectively deployed within the U.S. military command to find, track, attack and destroy Chinese submarines deemed to pose a risk to the U.S. mainland.

“Australian ministers never openly acknowledged as much, but inevitably the result was that the whole enterprise was viewed from an alliance-strengthening perspective and this role for the boats was mutually understood.”

Evans describes Aukus as a redoubling of Australia’s commitment to the US alliance, painting a target on the country’s back in the event of a military conflict.

Thursday’s first hearing of the public inquiry, which has no parliamentary process and is backed by unions and the Australian Peace and Security Forum, will be chaired by commissioners including former Labor Minister Peter Garrett and former defense boss Chris Barrie.

Current Labor ministers have accused the inquiry of being anti-Aukus from the beginning.

Non-proliferation campaigners Tilman Ruff, Richard Tanter and Dave Sweeney will also give evidence at the hearing, as will retired diplomat John Lander.

Commissioners of inquiry, who are highly skeptical of the Aukus deal, will hold public hearings across the country before presenting a report in October.

Foreign minister Penny Wong said on Thursday that she and defense minister Richard Marles had discussed the Aukus issue with their UK counterparts in regular calls throughout the night.

The UK government has confirmed that the first steel for newly built joint submarines will be cut next year, even as the UK’s current submarine program remains years behind targets and billions of dollars over budget.

“This submarine capability is central to securing Australia’s sovereignty in a much more contested world,” Wong said.

“It is a capability that we need in a more contentious world. There is no doubt that this project has its challenges. There is no doubt that it is ambitious. But there is also no doubt that we need this capability to secure our interests. And we are very focused on delivering that.”

Labor is pushing back against criticism of the plan, including from its own MPs, ahead of the party’s national conference in Adelaide next month.