Will it snow this Christmas? Latest Met Office verdict
It’s that time of year again when the weather gets colder, knitted sweaters come out and everyone dreams of a white Christmas.
But those hoping for snowflakes to fall from the sky may have to wait a little longer, as future forecasts from the Met Office show a whiteout is unlikely on Christmas Day.
Tom Crabtree, Met Office deputy head of forecasting, said: “High pressure is expected to increase next week, bringing drier and less mild conditions for the Christmas period.
“Although temperatures may be falling, they are not falling. Night frosts are likely, and there may also be fog and mist in patches, but the chances of serious cold weather appear less likely.”
“Falling temperatures bring the potential for some snowfall in the east, but it is too early to discern details of any given day over the Christmas period.”
The Met Office said the threshold for a “white Christmas” requires only a single snowflake to be observed falling on Christmas Day anywhere in the UK.
Last year the Met Office predicted a “grey Christmas” with scattered rain and clouds along with mild temperatures.
The last technically white Christmas in the UK was in 2023; 11 percent of weather stations recorded snowfall, but none reported snow on the ground.
The last time it snowed on a large scale at Christmas was in 2010. It was the whitest Christmas on record in the UK, with 83 per cent of stations recording snow on the ground.
More than half of all Christmas Days since 1960 have reached the threshold; In about half of those years, at least 5 percent of weather stations reported snow on the big day.
But the chances of the snow actually collapsing are slim: this has happened only four times, in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.
In most parts of the UK, Christmas is just the start of the period when snowfall is likely, and according to the Met Office, we’re more likely to see snow in January and February than in December.
On average, snow falls to the ground (snow lies) on 3 days in December compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March (long-term average period 1991 – 2020).
Met Office data shows records of which areas experienced a ‘White Christmas’ from 1960 to 2024. These incidents are most prevalent in The Highlands, which had the highest number of snowy Christmases at 175, followed by Aberdeenshire with 92 cases.
White Christmases were more common in the 18th and 19th centuries; it was even more common before the calendar change in 1752 that brought Christmas Day back 12 days.
Climate change has also caused average temperatures on land and sea to rise, generally reducing the chances of a white Christmas.
