Georgia blaze shows how climate change has led to more wildfires in the East

Wildfires, mostly considered a problem for Western North America, are becoming more intense, more frequent and more damaging in the East. More than 50 houses were destroyed in GeorgiaFire scientists said.

Researchers blame a number of factors, including climate change, record drought, tens of millions of tons of dead trees, which are causing the fuel to dry out and become more flammable. Hurricane Helene and the vast area where only dense forests and large numbers of people try to coexist.

So far this year, 2,802 square miles (7,258 square kilometers) burned in wildfires across the United States — most in Nebraska, It’s an unusual area for large wildfires; That’s 88% more than the 10-year average for this time of year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. This comes at a time when a significant part of the country is breaking records. warmest winter And March and April drought.

“The warmer we get, the more fires we see. Longer fire periods, probably more lightning and drier fuels,” said fire scientist Mike Flannigan of Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia, Canada. “I think we’re going to see more fires in the East. We’re going to see more intense fires.”

Fires are increasing in the East

The number of large fires, the likelihood of them occurring, and the amount of land burned increased across much of the Southeastern United States from 1984 to 2020. According to a study dated 2023 By University of Florida fire ecologists Victoria Donovan and Carissa Wonkka.

“Fires in the East, historically and today, are much smaller than those in the American West, so they may not always get as much attention as those in the West. But now we’re starting to see this shift in dynamics in the East, we’re starting to measure it,” Donovan said Thursday. “Although the changes we see in the East are much smaller than what we measure in the West, we think it is extremely important to start getting ahead of this problem.”

Three months ago, Donovan, Wonkka and other fire scientists created a new network for fire researchers to study Eastern fires because some of the topics experts learn in the West may not apply in the East, Wonkka said.

While there are larger and more visible, fast-spreading fires in the West, there are more people in front of the flames in the East, in what scientists call an “Intrusion.” wildland-urban interface or WUI.

“We found that 45% of all large wildfires in the East burned part of the wildland-urban interface, and 55% of the area burned, so most of these large wildfires were associated with WUI fires,” Donovan said.

Additionally, forests in the East are denser and less likely to become thinner than those in the West, Donovan said.

Hurricane Helene created a ‘ticking time bomb’

A week ago, federal and state officials looked at drought, weather and Hurricane Helene’s millions of dead trees in 2024 and issued an advisory to be wary of fires, said Nick Nauslar, National Weather Service fire science and operations officer at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.

“You know, they think they might see more fires, they might see more resistance to containment with the fires they get,” Nauslar said. “In many of the areas where Helene caused damage, the weather was warmer and drier than normal. So there’s potential there. Now that (the trees) are dead and at the mercy of the weather and climate, you have a fuel surplus. And then if dry and windy conditions occur, if there’s an ignition, it’s more likely to ignite and spread.”

In Georgia alone, 13,954 square miles (36,142 square kilometers) of forest land was hit by Hurricane Helene, falling more than 26 million tons of pine and 30 million tons of hardwood, according to a November 2024 timber damage assessment from the University of Georgia and the Georgia Forestry Commission.

“A lot of us are worried about post-Helene fuel buildup. It’s a ticking time bomb,” said Marshall Shepherd, a professor of meteorology at the University of Georgia.

Dry weather makes the situation worse

But it’s not just the downed trees, it’s also the dry air that increases the likelihood of fire. Nauslar and Flannigan said the problem isn’t just a lack of rain, but also because the air is less humid.

“As it gets warmer… the ability of the atmosphere to absorb moisture from the dead fuel, but not from the live fuel, increases almost exponentially as the temperature increases,” Flannigan said. “The drier the fuel, the easier it is for a fire to start, meaning more fuel is dry and ready to burn, leading to higher intensity fires that are difficult or impossible to extinguish.

“That’s what we’re seeing starting to move East right now,” Flannigan said. Human-caused climate change clearly plays a role, he said.

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