Bitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking
Chongqing, China – July 17: In this photo illustration, a person holds a physical representation of a Bitcoin (BTC) coin in front of a screen showing Bitcoin’s latest price movements in China in China. (Photo drawing Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
Cheng Xin | Getty Images News | Getty Images
BitcoinThe ‘Qualitative “Cycle” shows signs that investors can be broken when reshaping market dynamics.
If a predictable model is broken, it will have significant effects on the way investors evaluate the price action of the crypto currency and the potential timing of when to invest in Bitcoin.
In his statement to CNBC, “It was not officially finished until it saw positive returns in 2026. But let’s say: I think the 4 -year cycle is over.”
What is Bitcoin Cycle?
In general, the Bitcoin cycle means a change in the mining awards written in the Bitcoin code, a four -year price movement model that revolves around a key event known as Halving.
Half of the state is roughly every four years, the last one It took place in April 2024 and the previous May 2020.
When it occurs in half, the Bitcoin-shaped prizes called “miners” are reduced to assets that hold the functioning of the Bitcoin network. This reduces Bitcoin supply to the market. Therefore, there are only 21 million bitcoins.
Typically, Bitcoin was gathered to reach the highest level of all time within and at the end of the half after half. Later, Bitcoin would collapse, about 70% to 80% from the summit, which would lead to the beginning of the “crypto winter”, a long -term period of depressive digital mine prices. The price of other crypos will also decrease significantly in this period. Bitcoin then trades in a range for a while, and as it approaches the next half, it usually sees the appreciation of the price. Then repeats the cycle.
The price of Bitcoin usually moved in 4 -year cycles.
What happened to the Bitcoin cycle?
Bitcoin had an unprecedented market response until the last half while hitting freshly The highest level of all time, in March 2024, about half a month ago, as expected after the famous activity, instead of reaching new peaks.
“In every previous cycle, the highest levels of the new time came 12-18 months after the highest levels of all time.” He said.
The main factor was the approval of the US Bitcoin stock market designed funds (ETFs), which began to be traded in January 2024.
Hoping that big entries to ETFs and that it could bring more traditional corporate investors who had previously stayed away from crypto, helped to increase Bitcoin’s price.
“This time, this time, Spot Bitcoin ETF demand was essentially highlighted after a typical maid. This was a clear indication that institutional flows could change the traditional cycle dynamics.” He said.
Which factors helped change the Bitcoin cycle?
ETF was the first main factor that disrupts Bitcoin’s four -year rhythm. He brought deep -pocket investors who want to keep the crypto currency in the longer term.
However, some market factors have changed.
Bitwise Asset Management’s Hougan usually means “explosions in crypto” that usually come before crypto winters. He made reference The first coin offers (ICOs) accidents in 2018 and the collapse of Crypto Exchange FTX in 2022.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic environment and regulation become more supportive.
Hougan, “interest rates are more likely to fall more than the next year, and regulators and legislators are willing to be willing to interact with crypto instead of refusing to deal with it, will significantly reduce the risk of future explosion.” He said.
Gary Gensler, the former leader of the US Securities and Stock Exchange Commission, fell into the sector and filed a series of lawsuits against crypto companies. People in the sector said they were unjustly targeted. Under US President Donald Trump’s current rule, he left some cases against SEC crypto companies. Washington tried to introduce new laws around the crypto and even launched a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Meanwhile, public companies accumulate crypto currencies, especially Bitcoin as part of a new strategy.
“Increased market maturity, long -term conservative accumulation at the highest levels of all time, and traditional 4 -year rhythm, is replaced by more liquidity, more liquidity -sensitive, macro -correlation behavior,” said Ryan Chow, Founding Partner of Solv Protocol. He said.
We are in the cycle now?
According to Diwan of Coindesk data, the important point to consider is that the most important price appreciation for Bitcoin is historically occurs between 500 and 720 days. Diwan said that Bitcoin was peak during this window in 2016 and 2020 cycles.
“If this pattern is going to repeat, we should watch the potential acceleration between the third quarter and the first quarter 2026,” Diwan said. [in] This cycle was particularly suppressed compared to the post -competition periods. “
Bitwise Asset Management Hougan said that the four -year cycle is over, but he will have to have a good 2026, which Bitcoin will take place for him to die officially.
“I don’t think we have repealed the volatility, but I think the powers that create a four-year cycle historically weaker than in the past, and there are other very powerful powers that act in a different timeline that I think will overcome our four-year tendency.” He said.
Bitcoin’s last record increased over $ 123,000 on July 14th.
Are 80 % accidents in the past?
An important feature of the previous loops is that Bitcoin roughly decreases roughly from a record height of 70% to 80%.
Crypto industry from inside, considering the reasons they summarized to support a changing four -year cycle, CNBC’ye said this will not be.
“We believe that the ruthless 70-80 lottery period is behind us.” He said.
The biggest correction of this cycle is about 84% after 2017 and about 26% on closing compared to the highest levels of all time after 2021.
In response to macro shocks or regulatory surprises, he added that there may be corrections of 30% to 50%.
Hougan also said that it is possible to decrease by 30% to 50%, but: “I bet 70% of the withdrawal remained in the past.”
