Trump’s tariff deal offers scant relief for Japan autos as China threat looms

Japanese automobile manufacturers may be side by side by crushing US tariffs, but Chinese car manufacturers have little comfort as the long -lasting global edges, which have been complex with permanent structural challenges at home.

On July 22, US President Donald Trump announced that the tariffs in Japan -made vehicle imports have been reduced from 25% to 15% to the United States.

However, industry experts warned, the light is not yet at the end of the tunnel.

“The trade agreement dealing with the United States is definitely a relief, the US tariffs in Japan -made cars will not rise to punishing levels,” Moody’s Stefan Angrick, President of Moody’s Japan and Frontier Market Economics in Analytics. He said.

He continued: “But I hesitate to call it good news. 15% US import tariff from the place of Japan is significantly higher. And 15% tariff is definitely higher than expected.”

Analysts say that greater difficulty comes from the meteoric rise in China’s global automotive industry. China, once an important growth market for Japanese brands, turned into a dominant opponent.

Angick said an important challenge for Japanese manufacturers is intense competition from China. China’s pushing into advanced production, just like Japanese -made domestic demand began to soften, as well as a challenging opponent, he added.

Karl Brauer, the manager analyst of ISEECARS, remains “the biggest threat” to the automobile industry and economic appearance of Japan’s automobile industry and economic appearance.

China is especially the largest car manufacturer and exporter in the world. electric vehicles. The increasing sovereignty of the country in critical components and home innovation is increasingly squeezing foreign car manufacturers.

Chinese car manufacturers also add an important way to Southeast Asia – A region where Japanese brands such as Toyota, Honda and Nissan have been dominated for a long time -It makes it difficult for Japan automobile manufacturers to maintain their global market shares that cannot take once.

According to A 2025 Report by PWCThe market share of Japanese automobile manufacturers in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipins, Vietnam and Singapore, called ASEAN-6, fell from 68.2% to 63.9% in 2024% in 2023.

“[China autos] They expand to markets where Japanese companies have a strong basis. Thailand is an example, Mood said Moody’s analytical expert.

Beyond Southeast Asia, Japan’s second largest automobile export market China is also objected: Australia.

A The latest study published by Australia Automotive Dealer Association China predicts that in the next decade, Australia is ready to overcome other countries as a leading source of imports.

By 2035, 43% of all imported vehicles in Australia are expected to be produced from 17% expected in 2025 in China. On the other hand, Japanese imports are expected to decrease from 32% to 2035% in 2025%.

In addition to external competition, Japan’s automotive sector is struggling with internal economic difficulties, including high inflation and weak consumer expenditures, similar to other developed economies.

While the big car manufacturers who love Toyota continue to find success in the country, Nissan Brauer is particularly vulnerable due to the increasing threat of China’s automotive industry.

The wrong steps of management before and Planned facility closures They combine their troubles. Nissan plans to close seven of 17 plants in the 2027 financial year and to reduce the global labor force by about 15% as part of a restructuring plan.

“After all, the appearance of Japan’s automobile industry is very difficult.” He said.

During ToyotaGlobal scale and diversified production footprint provides a relative advantage in maneuvering these difficulties, Subaru And Mazda Mio Kato, the founder of Lightstream Research, is under more pressure.

Kato, Subaru and Mazda faced a “significantly higher load”, while Toyota said that they have strong ties.

Mazada, the first, Shares a common facility with ToyotaSubaru is working with Toyota to produce an electric vehicle developed together for the first output of 2026.

In the long run, Kato believes that these partnerships can deepen and potentially leads to a more official consolidation under Toyota’s umbrella.

“I don’t wait [a consolidation] It will take place in a short period of time. However, perhaps it is definitely something to think when you start to look towards the end of the decade. ”

Nevertheless, analysts acknowledge that Trump’s final tariff rate is at least one benefit: some predictability.

Although it is too early to complete the long -term impact of the new trade agreement between the United States and Japan, an approved tariff agreement will allow Japanese automobile manufacturers to know the pricing and cost structures, experts repeated.

However, it remains unclear which tariff rates of other car manufacturers will face.

“I think the absolute situation for Japan is now relatively well understood, but in terms of how competitiveness that has been produced and exported in Korea, or from Mexico and Canada, which can affect the appearance of snow for Japanese automobile companies,” Kato said. He said.