Bitcoin surged in April, but weak buyer demand makes rally vulnerable

bitcoin There was an uptick in April, but its trajectory may be shaky, according to crypto data provider CryptoQuant.

The flagship cryptocurrency posted back-to-back monthly gains, gaining 12.7% for the month, marking its best month since April 2025. It gained nearly 2% in March after declining for five consecutive months. Ether It increased by 8% in the same period, marking its second consecutive rise and its best month since August.

But perpetual futures, the dominant source of leveraged crypto trading activity, was the “sole driver” of the rally, according to CryptoQuant. The firm’s apparent demand metric, which tracks the 30-day change in direct Bitcoin purchases, remained negative throughout April as futures demand increased.

The combination of these two trends is often a warning sign, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. They suggest that upward price movement is due to speculation rather than fundamentals.

“This divergence—increasing futures demand alongside contracting spot demand—suggests that price appreciation is driven by leverage rather than fresh money accumulation,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a report on Thursday. he said. “Historically, such configurations lack the structural foundation needed to sustain price increases and are often resolved through correction when futures positions unwind.”

The data also underscores the changing environment for crypto exchanges and the importance of crypto derivatives, including perpetual futures and increasingly prediction markets.

Perpetual futures, better known as “criminals,” remain the dominant venue for trading activity, liquidity and price discovery. At the same time, spot trading, on which the first crypto exchanges were founded, is becoming a less reliable engine for stable income as it depends on cycles of continuous accumulation that are not always available.

Crypto demand in 2026 has been unstable and mostly reactive. Price action is closely linked to the broader market, driven by changing US interest rate expectations and periodic geopolitical shocks from the Iran war, rather than regular spot accumulation and underlying buyer demand. Additionally, the industry is lacking a catalyst as regulatory progress (particularly regarding the market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act) has stalled.

Moreno noted that a similar pattern emerged at the beginning of the 2022 bear market (increased futures demand as spot demand contracted), followed by a prolonged decline in price. With this in mind, Moreno stated in his report that the current uptrend could carry downside risk if the market remains in a bearish phase more broadly.

Of course, the market at the time was closely tied to an aggressive rate hike cycle and a system-wide contagion event in the crypto industry. This also preceded institutional adoption of bitcoin and the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs as well as institutional bitcoin accumulators outside the country. Strategylater called MicroStrategy.

“This is not a case of spot demand lagging behind catching up with futures,” Moreno said. “Rallies built on this structure have a tendency to be self-limiting. Without increased spot demand to sustain higher prices, unwinding futures positioning typically becomes the driver of the subsequent correction.”

Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs Total $1.9 billion in Aprilbringing total net assets to $100.53 billion. Bitcoin treasury companies increased their net worth by approximately 58,000 coins It is worth approximately $4.4 billion at month-end prices.

After reaching its April high of $79,500, Bitcoin mostly recorded lower levels throughout the rest of the month. On Friday, it was up more than 2% in first-day trading; It was just over 1% off its April high.

—CNBC’s Nick Wells contributed reporting.