South Korea’s birth rate collapse threatens growth
In a photo taken on May 26, 2016, a mobility scooter parks before the rice fields in Gunwi, 200 kilometers south of Seoul. By 2030, one quarter of all South Koreans will be over 65 years of age, and the general population is expected to peake for approximately 52 million in the same year before entering a stable decline period. This so -called “Silver Tsunami” is a great challenge for the fourth largest economy of Asia as the young, working age population has fallen and the cost of looking at the elderly increases. And in remote, rural communities such as Gunwi, 200 kilometers southeast of Seoul, worse for cities by a trendy youth migration.
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South Korea is looking at a demographic load train. Research is known as one of the “four Asian tigers” for the meteoric economic rise from post -war poverty, faced with an demographic gap that can stop growth in twenty years.
Korean Bank in 2024 predicted The country’s rock -based birth rate will be one of the factors that will push it to a long -term decline by the 2040s.
A separate work In May, the Korean Development Institute said that demographic changes will be dragged to potential growth that could approach zero in the 2040s. In projections, the South Korean economy may contract in an neutral scenario until 2047 – or in an early date such as pessimistic scenario or 2041.
South Korea Birth rate is currently 0.748 in 2024A slight increase in 2023 from the low record of 0.721. 1.43 in 2023. The “replacement rate”, commonly specified to prevent a decreasing population of countries, is 2.1.
0.72 What does the fertility rate mean for South Korea, they will have about 36 children at existing levels for every 100 Korean, and their labor force is narrowed throughout generations. Experts say this will stop productivity and slow growth.
Miracle for ‘miracle on the Han River’?
If technological innovation cannot balance this decrease, Lee In-in-SIL, Director of the Korean Penalty Institute Population Institute, told CNBC, a “continuous economic slowdown”.
And this is not for lack of trial. The country presented the package after the package of support measures to have children to have children, including baby bonuses and cash prizes. Seoul has spent over $ 270 billion for incentives to encourage birth in the last 16 years. Article 2024 in Medical Ethics Magazine.
Seoul even made an idea in 2023 Exempted men from compulsory military service If he had three or more children before the age of 30.
However, such efforts had little effect in a country greeted as “miracle in the Han River” for the rapid rise of the war. “I do not think that the population policy in South Korea is a significant way to raise fertility levels in South Korea.” He said.
On June 27, 2025, people ride a bike along a planned track with the city silhouette in Singapore.
Roslan Rahman | AFP | Getty Images
Although South Korea’s total fertility rate increased marginalized in 2024, Eberstadt said, “We shouldn’t explode champagne mushrooms,” because it is well below the replacement rate of 2.1. He said that the desired family size in South Korea is still below the 2.1 replacement rate, that is, the TFR will not reach a higher number of 2.1.
Retirement effect
A shrinkage workforce will also bother the pension system. In March, South Korea passed the first Pension Fund Reform Within 18 years, the state extended the exhaustion of the retirement fund until 15 years to 2071.
Lee, South Korea’s four major pension systems – military, private school employees, civil servants and national pensions – military pension and civil servant pension already exhausted, he said.
Existing reforms will see a structure where young generations pay higher premiums while getting lower benefits, which will inevitably lead to criticism of transferring the burden to future generations.
A smaller draft pool also has defense effects. Active Unions of South Korea 20 % dropped In 2019, from 690,000 to about 450,000. South Korean Armed Forces were increased by 28,500 US soldiers and Seoul has a mutual defense agreement with Washington.
Since the Korean war in 1953 ended with a ceasefire, not a peace agreement, South Korea is still in war with North Korea. North Korea has one of the largest military forces in the world with approximately 1.23 million personnel.
There is no reason to be pessimistic
Despite the gloomy appearance for Asia’s fourth largest economy, some analysts pay attention to despair.
At the same time, Lee, former director of the National Statistical Agency, said that economies could find ways to adapt.
“When an economy faces stagnation, it usually responds with various efforts to increase productivity through technological innovation, migration policies and other measures to prevent further decrease.” He said.
Eberstadt from AEI also said that South Korea could maintain and even increase his prosperity despite aging and shrinking. As the world’s population increased, he drew attention to the 1970s when it was suspected of fears of scarcity of scarcity and how to feed it.
In 1968, former Stanford University Professor Paul Ehrlich and researcher Anne Ehrlich, the Population Bomb book, foresee the global famine and increased mortality as the population grew.
However, 50 years later, the world said, “Richer, better educated, better fed, better hosted, more prosperous, less absolute poverty, less than the world’s smaller,” he said.
Considering the rapid policy changes of the Korean government and the awareness of the public in recent years, Lee from KPPİF said he was sure that groundbreaking solutions will emerge.
Eberstadt betrayed that very few people could achieve what South Korea had today in 1953..
“People can be adapted uniquely,” he added. He said: “This is a very different challenge, but I do not think that the record of the recent past is smart money to bet against the South Korean population.”
