Black market cigarettes expose the biggest lie in inflation

The latest inflation statistics appeared. Once again, they show that cigarettes are the fastest growing price in the country.

Here is a package of cigarette orbit last year: If they used to cost $ 50, they now cost $ 55.75, an increase of 11.5%.

By the way, a $ 50 purchase The “basket” of goods and services It cost $ 51.05 a year ago -an increase of 2.1%.

Our inflation index is constantly pushed up with the rising price of cigarettes, which is constantly pushed up with tax. If you ignore the rising price of tobacco, the inflation in this country looks much better than the statistical show.

But much worse than that

The price of cigarettes is not just worth it ignoringAs in the graph above… It actually falls. Because no one smokes in the supermarket (Supermarkets actually report to investors about sales growth not including Tobacco, because tobacco sales fall fast enough to make their growth look quite bad).

Here is a graph showing the government’s income from tobacco consumption:

And here is the cigarette pack I received as a research for this story:

I am a person who does not smoke. Shortly after promising CriraseI was very worried, I was very worried, taking a package of black market by taking a step fooled by editor Gonzo journalism. What am I saying? What do I do? Will I go to jail? How do I behave naturally? Why can’t all journalism not just data journalism?

I went to the ATM and took cash. Someone told me that dangerous cigarettes were called “mançesters ve and I made a rehearsal to ask for a package.

“Is there a manchesters?

This is the expression that I repeated like a mantra in my mind while walking into a 50 -meter smoke shop from ATM.

In the shop, the two most dodgian -looking men in Australia were chatting with the man behind the counter. He returned from them and served me (what talks Them He didn’t want me to overhear, I’m asking myself now).

“Is there a manchesters? I asked. A dopamine hit me in a hurry.

My sense of mastery was unfortunately to be short -lived. “What kind of?” he asked the young man.

“Ummmmmm,” I heard. “What is it?”

He opened a drawer and showed me the choices: heavy or light. I chose light. I don’t want to drink them, but it still seemed to be an unhealthy choice to buy heavy.

“How much are they?” No price was sent for clear reasons.

“Fifteen dollars.”

“Can I pay a card?” I should only test my theory that they sell illegal goods.

He dragged the EFTPOS terminal towards me along the counter.

“Seventeen.”

Another card must have received additional fees, because I paid $ 17.28.

I filled the cigarettes in my pocket and wandered. I will say that a pack of cigarettes are too small and light. Paying $ 50 for someone should feel very much. Also, things really stuck there! I forced one to look – I bought a sardine with more breath rooms.

Cheaper than ever

The truth is that the cigarettes cost $ 40 and now they cost $ 15. For many people.

If we look at the consumption table above and give Vapes some market share, we can remove illegal cigarettes are probably about half the tobacco market.

Approximately half of the people pay $ 15, not $ 50 now. If we make a few small assumptions, in the last five years, average The price of a package of darts probably remained the same: the higher prices in the taxed market have been balanced by the fact that half of the purchases are now made in the illegal market.

Another way to look at this means that there is no inflation in this multibillion industry. And it affects official statistics.

If ABS looked at tobacco statistics, we would return our official inflation rate to the preferred range of RBA much faster. The bank could relax a little earlier.

Of course, the CPI claims to be measured, which is official prices. He’s not interested in Karabersa and never happened. ABS algorithms and price Boffins are not expected to reveal the price of a part of a part of a part of a part of a part or a point of Charlie (these terms that I have to look at) or some dangerous Sparkie (I know this Lingo).

I don’t blame ABS for not measuring illegal activities. And to be fair, they produce an index that shows all inflation – except alcohol and tobacco (shown above).

However, the exclusion of this part of the economy does not make a big difference as a big difference for many buyers that it is a market where prices fall. It is a valuable reminder for all of us that statistics are not everything.