Albanese didn’t return with shiploads of diesel. That doesn’t mean his Singapore visit wasn’t a success | Anthony Albanese

Anthony Albanese won’t be returning from Singapore with a boatload of diesel in his checked luggage. That doesn’t mean his tip-off visit wasn’t successful, or that it won’t be seen as a pivotal moment in the future if fuel supplies continue to be overwhelmed by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The government never expected that a quick hit of just one full day would bring a new supply of gasoline or diesel to Singapore. Singapore currently supplies 55% of Australia’s unleaded fuel, 22% of its jet fuel and 15% of its diesel fuel.

So, rather than asking for more refined fuel today (as the government maintains there is more supply onshore now than at the beginning of the US-Israeli war against Iran, and the number of stockless service stations is dwindling), the visit was about shoring up our existing supplies if things go even worse.

For example, if the fragile ceasefire breaks down, or if increased Israeli bombardment of Lebanon causes Iran to once again close the Strait of Hormuz.

The Australian side was buoyed by Singaporean prime minister Lawrence Wong’s firm response that “we do not plan to restrict exports…we will not do so during this energy crisis.” This was seen as the closest thing to a guarantee that Australia would not see any reduction in supply from our largest source of refined fuel.

Energy minister Chris Bowen said such diplomatic statements were “often quite subtle”, saying Wong’s response was “as strong as could be expected” in terms of his commitment that Australia would continue to buy Singaporean fuel.

But it was an earlier sentence in Wong’s prepared opening speech, which highlighted the biggest risk facing Australia as Albanese tried to plan for the future: uncertainty.

Wong assured Albanese that Singapore would continue to supply refined fuel to Australia, but cautioned “as long as upstream supply continues”.

In one sense, this is obvious: Singapore relies on importing crude oil rather than extracting it directly. If its upstream supply chain is disrupted, its downstream supply chain to Australia and elsewhere will naturally be affected.

Leaders around the world are crossing their fingers and hoping that the strait will reopen, the ceasefire will hold, and any economic or supply shocks already hammered into the system by six weeks of disruptions to global shipping, including those yet to come, can be endured.

But if the situation worsens, the bloody conflict in the Middle East continues, or oil prices continue to rise, the government wants to say that it has pulled every lever, turned every corner, made every phone call, and done every favor to alleviate the suffering in the country.

After receiving assurances from Singapore, stepped-up efforts to provide greater certainty in diesel supply will surely be next on the agenda as prices rise despite fuel excise cuts.

“What we’ve consistently done here is not to wait… we’ve taken every opportunity possible to increase supply,” Albanese said on his way to Singapore.

Other parts of the government’s recent strategy align with this idea: anticipating calm now but also planning for the future. Leveraging Australia’s significant LNG and coal exports, as Albanese did in Singapore, to remind partners that they need Australia’s resources as much as Australia needs its own; diplomatic relations with major fuel suppliers, including phone calls with China and Brunei to remind our partners that we are a reliable ally; other expected foreign trips by senior government members to drive home those points; and we are responsible for new fuel shipments for the Viva and Ampol refineries.

The fuel crisis has caused some conventional political wisdom to be thrown out. Normally a Prime Minister would not fly abroad during a crisis, but the time calls for action. Footage of the Albans touring fuel refining facilities on Singapore’s Jurong Island and watching an Australian ship unload LNG paints a picture of a world leader scouring the world for oil and bolstering supply.

Returning without a tangible new fuel load has the potential to thwart attacks – a line of attack that the Coalition immediately goes to – but a near-hard guarantee that Singapore’s fuel will keep coming is a strong outcome.

So the obvious question is: if you trust the government’s word that all is well, that fuel stocks are higher than before, and that fuel shortages are a symptom of increased demand rather than reduced supply, why are these moves needed?

It’s about planning ahead for uncertainty. The day you plant the seed is not the day you eat the fruit, and the day the government gets assurances that fuel will flow is not the day we see it arriving on tankers.

Albanese used harsher language on this trip, stating that “a difficult period lies ahead” and stated that even if the strait is opened tomorrow, the long-term effects are already on the way like a balloon going down the tube.

“Significant damage has occurred in the Gulf and will have consequences for at least months ahead,” he warned on Friday.

This way both things can be true at the same time. On the one hand, the government is trying to reassure Australians that supply is secure, stocks are increasing and the number of fuel-free service stations is decreasing; but on the other hand, they are clearly planning for a potential rainy day when these positive numbers may no longer be valid.

Albanese wants a ceasefire in the Middle East and the reopening of the strait, but his trip to Singapore may have long-term benefits if the crisis continues.