Will Putin-Trump Meeting In Hungary Succeed, Or Will The Russian President Face Arrest? | World News
As peace talks in Alaska fail, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are now eyeing Hungary as the venue for renewed discussions on ending the Ukraine conflict. But it is the choice of location that has sparked worldwide interest.
Putin currently faces an international arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2023 over allegations of war crimes, including the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children. Theoretically, setting foot in Hungary or even flying in the airspace of ICC signatories could subject him to arrest.
ICC GUARANTEE MAKES PLANS DIFFICULT
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The ICC, which does not have its own enforcement body, relies on member states to carry out arrests. Hungary, Romania and Serbia, neighboring countries, technically have to detain Putin if his plane crosses their airspace. Germany has already called on Budapest to fulfill its legal obligations.
However, such an arrest seems unlikely. Although Hungary is a signatory of the Rome Statute establishing the ICC, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán began the process of withdrawing from the treaty in April. But the withdrawal takes a full year to take effect, meaning Hungary will remain committed to its ICC obligations, at least for now.
Yet Orbán has long had strong ties to both Trump and Putin. Hungary reportedly offered assurances about Putin’s security, citing the April visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, another leader facing ICC charges, as a precedent.
ORBÁN’S POLITICAL CALCULATIONS
Orbán, whose government has been in power for 15 years, appears to be using the summit as a domestic distraction amid rising food prices and economic stagnation. He recently claimed that Budapest was “the only place in Europe where such a meeting could be held.”
It is said that he held preliminary meetings with both leaders and laid the groundwork for the proposed summit.
LOGISTICS AND LEGAL OBSTACLES
If Putin agrees to attend the meeting in Budapest, it will be his first visit to an EU country since the invasion of Ukraine, which began nearly four years ago. The Kremlin remained cautious, stating that “many issues still need to be resolved” before any visit is approved.
Getting to Alaska for previous talks has been relatively easy because Russian planes can avoid EU and NATO-controlled airspace. A trip to Hungary is much more complicated due to EU sanctions that ban Russian planes from flying through or landing in member states, including Hungary. Even if exemptions could be made, this would put the EU in a politically awkward position, either compromising its stance towards Russia or being seen as obstructing a possible peace process.
POSSIBLE ROUTES TO BUDAPEST
A three-hour direct flight from Moscow to Budapest via Belarus and Western Ukraine is no longer possible. Ukrainian airspace remains an active war zone, making it extremely dangerous and unpredictable.
The second option involves a five-hour route through Belarus, Poland and Slovakia. While Belarus does not pose a problem for Putin, ICC supporter and NATO member Poland may pose a significant risk. Warsaw recently warned Moscow of violations after Russian drones violated its airspace. Slovakia, a major buyer of Russian energy, is less likely to intervene.
The most viable option appears to be a longer, eight-hour journey via Turkey, one of the few countries that maintains balanced relations with both Russia and the West, then via Greece, across the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas to Montenegro, and finally via Serbia to Hungary. Serbia maintains close cooperation with Moscow despite pressure from the West.
The route mirrors the route Netanyahu took last month en route to the UN General Assembly in New York, where he carefully avoided hostile or ICC-aligned countries.
A DELICATE BALANCED MOVEMENT
As a result, Putin’s potential visit depends on complex geopolitical maneuvering and, in particular, behind-the-scenes diplomacy by the United States, which may need to pressure its NATO allies to allow safe passage.
For the EU, the situation presents a dilemma: allow a suspected war criminal to travel freely in the name of diplomacy or risk being portrayed as an obstacle to peace.
