This is the key takeaway from fresh jobless claims data
00:00 Speaker A
Today we have made unemployed claims. What does this tell us about the picture of greater work, and maybe what can we hear in the next job report?
00:10 Josh
Yes, so you’ve seen a small increase in the middle of the middle of 230,000 in the weekly unemployed claims. This is not a level where economists will normally be a flag. And this number does not really crawl in the last few weeks, as in the early this year. But in fact, the basic package for me was the ongoing request number, right? The amount of Americans who continue to apply for unemployment every week. This has hit the highest level since November 2021. This is one of these data points on the FED. You have many economists marking this, but in fact what you tell you is that it takes longer and longer to return to the Americans to find a new job. Therefore, one of these small symptoms of weakness, and perhaps some economists that emerged this morning, follow some estimates that may show that you have achieved a 4.3% unemployment rate in the non -agricultural payroll report. This will be released at the end of next week or maybe a week. My dates there may be wrong there. A week later. A week later. But it will come out soon, right? And the key to this report is obviously receiving the payroll report of the August Farm, probably supports a segment in September. Some economists claim that they can support 50 basic points, especially if weak. It is not the place where the market is now, but this is one of the risks there.
02:45 Speaker A
Well, but then there’s rock and hard place, right, John? Because, as you know, we have received unemployed demand data today, but there is also a production UH purchasing manager index from S&P Global, which is the highest in a few years. So, you know, this may be a little upward pricing pressure. Today we received news from Walmart, which shows that his margins are a little bored because he has to negotiate to get people out of the door. However, this means that it swallows some of the cost of tariffs. So the Fed, you know, maybe it’s stuck between these dual tasks.
03:55 John
A difficult point. The S&P global report you mentioned in fact showed that the prices paid in the manufacturing increased. You see a trend up there. You know, what Josh describes UH very accurately is a labor market that II says we’re stinging labor. Companies do not expel workers very aggressively because things can occur. Uh, but not all of them are aggressively, they don’t hire the workers. So in the labor market there is like UH Staz. And you know, I think it is a slight stagflation to explain where the economy is for me. Therefore, there was a lot of uncertainty about how the tariff policy played and how the immigration policy was playing, in the UH fiscal policy. And therefore, we see a little reconstruction of price prints on the inflation side, and the labor market does not go too far. So the Fed is not really in a position to move in a very aggressive way. Small steps are the same as Uh Jay Powell’s last walk on Jackson Hole. You know, when you go up or down on the treacherous field, you take small steps and make sure you don’t fall. So this will accept the changing UH environment. Unless there is a big surprise in the next data tour, it will keep the door open to the ratio cuts, but it will not encourage people to think that the FED is entering a much easier mode.
