Japan Issues Rare ‘Megaquake Advisory’ After M7.5 Tremor; Officials Warn Of 98-Foot Tsunami Risk | World News
Japan’s meteorological watchdog issued a rare “mega earthquake warning” on Tuesday following a 7.5-magnitude earthquake off the east coast of Aomori, southern Hokkaido. Although Monday’s tremor caused only minor damage and injured 34 people, the warning temporarily indicates that there is a higher risk of a much larger seismic event occurring in the same area.
Officials emphasized that the advisory warning is not a prediction, but that the probability of such an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater is low, only around one percent. According to the Associated Press. But the warning is aimed at maximizing preparedness for such a tragedy, reminiscent of the disaster that killed nearly 20,000 people in 2011.
Why is the risk higher?
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Monday’s M7.5 earthquake increased seismic risks along the Hokkaido-Sanriku coast, a vital region where the Pacific Plate subducts beneath Japan to form the Japan Trench and Chishima Trench, which are responsible for some of Japan’s largest historical earthquakes, according to the JMA.
2011 PrecedentExperts quoted by AP pointed out that the 9.0 magnitude mega earthquake that triggered the Fukushima disaster in 2011 was the result of the movement that occurred along the same Japan Trench.
Pattern Similarity:
JMA noted a disturbing parallel: Just two days before the mega earthquake in 2011, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in the same region; This is similar to the pattern observed this week.
Authorities asked those living in coastal areas to be careful, have emergency kits ready at all times and prepare for emergency evacuation. It covers 182 municipalities from Hokkaido to Chiba Prefecture.
Disaster Scenario
- Government estimates indicate that the potential mega-earthquake in this region is an extreme threat.
- Scenario Details IMPACT
- Potential Tsunami Height up to 30 meters
- Estimated Deaths Up to 199,000 People
- Structure Damage: Destruction of 220,000 structures
Economic Loss: Almost 31 trillion yen ($198 billion) Winter Risk: As many as 42,000 people at risk of hypothermia Export to Spreadsheets Learning from Past Warnings This latest advisory is more cautious and specific than a similar warning issued last year.
An earlier, much vaguer “Nankai Trench” megaquake warning for southern Japan issued in 2024 had led to an atmosphere of panic, including hoarding and cancellations of events. This time the JMA alert focused on the Hokkaido-Sanriku coastal region.
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