From Hormuz to ‘Gate of Grief’: What will happen if Iran attacks Bab al-Mandeb Strait aka the ‘Gate of Tears’
Reports suggest that Tehran could threaten Saudi Arabia’s last viable crude oil export route, which bypasses Hormuz via the kingdom’s East-West Oil Line. This pipeline has allowed Riyadh to continue shipping oil despite disruptions in the Gulf, but Bab al-Mandeb remains the final seaborne gateway. Any blockage here would tighten the screws on global energy supply.
According to Tasnim, an Iranian official underlined the risks by describing Bab al-Mandeb as one of the most strategic waterways in the world and implying that Iran has the intention and ability to disrupt it.
Why is Bab al-Mandeb important now?
As conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of global oil once passed, Saudi Arabia turned heavily to the Red Sea route. Millions of barrels a day were diverted to the west, easing the shock.
However, Bab el Mandeb is the bottleneck at the end of this route. Located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, it serves as the southern gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Any increase here could effectively trap shipments before they reach global markets.
There’s also a familiar wildcard: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. During the 2023 Gaza conflict, they showed how destructive the Red Sea could be by launching missiles and drones that forced ships to change course or come to a complete stop. A repeat scenario, this time aligned with Tehran’s broader strategy, could increase the impact.
However, this is not a one-sided game. Any direct threat to Saudi oil lifelines would likely prompt rapid retaliation from Riyadh, increasing the risk of a broader regional flare-up.
‘Gate of Tears’: A gateway with global reach
The name Bab al-Mandeb means “Gate of Tears” or “Gate of Sorrow”; It is a salute to treacherous waters and its long history. Its global importance increased with the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, becoming an important link between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean.
Today, although the narrowest point of the Bosphorus is approximately 32 km wide, it has a huge share in world trade. Estimates suggest that 10-12% of world maritime trade and millions of barrels of oil move towards Europe, the USA and Asia every day.
For this reason it is often labeled as the critical global “inflection point”. The disruptions here do not remain local; spanning supply chains, energy prices, and food security worldwide.
An expanding pressure spring
With Hormuz already on edge and oil markets on edge, any move toward Bab el Mandeb would signal a broader strategy: to expand pressure on multiple maritime arteries simultaneously.
This pattern is hard to miss; Aim for the narrowest passages and the world will feel the pressure.
Whether this remains a threat or turns into action will shape not only the conflict in the region but also the stability of global trade.
