Analysis-Venezuela-style strike on Taiwan’s leader could prove tricky for China
Greg Torode and Yimou Lee
HONG KONG/TAIPEI, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Some Chinese online users are calling for a lightning-quick Venezuelan-style capture of Taiwan’s leaders as a prelude to taking over the island, but analysts, academics and security officials say China’s modernizing military is still far from ready.
In Taiwan, they say, the Chinese military has an enemy who has been preparing for years against a “decapitation operation” against its leaders, with extensive air defense and radar capabilities as well as possible support from the United States and its allies.
Although China has spent years acquiring advanced weapons, questions remain about the People’s Liberation Army’s capacity to use these weapons effectively and the command structure that must bring them together in combat.
“Once such an operation runs into trouble, it will quickly escalate into a full-scale conflict with extremely high political and military risk,” said Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic People’s Party.
He added that Taiwan’s layered air defenses and early warning systems mean that any air strikes or special operations infiltration efforts while crossing the Taiwan Strait run the risk of being detected, a harbinger of escalation.
The United States demonstrated its forces’ battle-tested air dominance with the operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife last weekend.
His army controlled the skies with stealth fighters, jets that disrupted enemy defenses, stealth reconnaissance drones, and satellites that provided commanders with real-time intelligence.
By contrast, the PLA “still has gaping gaps in actual joint operations experience, electro-magnetic and electronic warfare capabilities, and actual combat verification of high-risk missions,” Chen said.
China’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to faxed questions from Reuters.
CHINA DID NOT CONSIDER THE FORCE TO TAKE TAIWAN
China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, does not rule out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan denies China’s claims.
“Operationally, while the PLA has been trying to get up to speed on force integration lately, these are still small steps compared to what the Americans have accumulated over decades,” said Collin Koh, a Singapore-based security expert.
President Lai Ching-te said last month that Taiwan was determined to assert its sovereignty and strengthen its defense after Beijing fired rockets at Taiwan as part of its latest military exercises.
The most comprehensive exercises to date surrounding Taiwan were accompanied by strong messages from Chinese officials and the military.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement: “Any external forces that try to intervene in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China’s internal affairs will definitely slam their heads bloodily against the iron walls of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.” he said.
In October, Lai unveiled a multi-layered air defense system called “T-Dome”.
It is intended to be similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome”, integrating weapons from Taiwan-developed Sky Bow missiles to US-supplied HIMARS rocket systems, with a more efficient and “sensor-to-shooter” mechanism for a higher kill rate.
In July, Taiwan’s military held an exercise deploying portable sting rockets and tanks to protect Taipei’s main airport from enemy landings.
MADURO’S RELEASE INSPIRES SOME
While military attachés said China was conducting wargaming-based landing operations in Taipei with a wide range of military options to seize control of Taiwan, some Chinese online users downplayed US action in Venezuela as inspiration.
“The situation in Venezuela has given us a solution to unify Taiwan,” said one user on X-like microblogging site Weibo.
“Use special operations to arrest Lai Ching-te first, then immediately announce the capture of Taiwan, issue new identity cards… and achieve a quick and decisive victory.”
Chen, who sits on the foreign affairs and defense committee of Taiwan’s parliament, described such statements as “fantasy”, while other analysts said such an initiative would quickly come up against military realities.
China has added aircraft to replicate platforms such as Boeing’s EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jet and Northrop Grumman’s E-2D Advanced Hawkeye command and early warning aircraft, but their exact capabilities have not yet been determined, Koh said.
Koh, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, added that while the ruling Communist Party still plays a role in the PLA’s command structure, doubts remain about its effectiveness.
“A decentralized command and control hierarchy is important; it allows field commanders to exercise the necessary initiative to deal with the fluid, evolving and uncertain nature of military operations as events evolve,” Koh said. he said.
Despite the PLA’s perceived shortcomings, Taiwan’s leaders are leaving nothing to chance.
“We don’t have the capital to underestimate them,” said a senior Taiwan security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because military matters are sensitive.
“After all, after this painful and shocking experience, China will also seek any means to overcome these problems.”
(Reporting by Greg Torode in Hong Kong and Yimou Lee in Taipei; Additional reporting by Laurie Chen, Tiffany Le and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
