News Analysis: Arab and Gulf nations fear U.S. attack on Iran will destabilize the region

Beirut – Last month, President Trump stopped in Ritz Carlton’s palace ballroom in Riyadh and scolded the wrong adventures of America in the Middle East.

As Saudi officials and US business leaders look at, Trump said that many of their predecessors are influenced by the idea that it is our job to look at the souls of foreign leaders and to use the US policy to distribute justice for their sins ”.

“In the end, they have devastated more nations than the so -called nation builders built,” he added. “And the interventions intervened in complex societies they did not understand.”

Only five weeks later, Trump seems to be at the summit of his Middle East adventure, one in 2003 shows an annoying parallel to the occupation of Iraq in 2003.

This conflict, which killed at least 100,000 Iraqis and about 4,400 Americans, took almost nine years and destroyed the area for half a generation. During the election campaign, Trump was the best example of “wars forever ve and the madness of intervening without a clear last game.

For Trump’s Gulf of Basra and Arab allies, the expectation of performance again left them scrabling for a diplomatic ramp.

Emirati Political Scientist and commentator Abdulkhaleq Abdulla said, on the face of the world, there is no nation that works more than the Gulf countries to calm the situation and stop this crazy war. It is definitely against any military conflict. ”

“I have never seen that their diplomacy is more active and more busy than today to put an end to today.”

They have very little love lost in Iran, where most Arab governments see as a rebellious neighbor in their backyard. The nuclear program has long been a concern, but greater fear was often Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, and in a Sunni -sovereign Arab world, the Shiite was mostly loyal to Iran.

During the Biden administration, US officials hoped to use this antipathy to create an anti -Iranian coalition that would see the co -operation with Israel to coalize friendly nations such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the UAE to isolate Tehran.

Instead, the rapprochement with Iran has been Modus Operandi in recent years, and the Gulf countries normalize and alleviate tensions with the Islamic Republic under the calculation of regional prosperity of regional stability.

They were all fast to condemn Israel’s attacks last week. Saudi Arabia, who has been the main rival of Iran with Iran for years and is generally seen as its main rival for regional influence, called it ılar Open Israeli aggression against the brother of the brother of Iran.

The UAE said the same thing. Although Ibrahim was an enthusiastic member of his agreements, the Trump Broked Agreement, which established relations between Israel and Arab countries, issued Israel because he attacked Iran.

On Tuesday, the Emirati ruler Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed al Nahyan called Iranian President Masoud Pesshkian to express his solidarity; On the same day, Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed stressed that a diplomatic approach is necessary to “prevent the situation from turning into grave and extensive consequences”.

The observers say that focus on diplomacy reflects pragmatism: if the US would have entered the conflict, probably one of Iran – or allied militias – would be thrown into American staff, bases and other interests in the region, including the BAE.

According to the Pentagon officials, there are more than 40,000 US military and civilian contractors in the Middle East (but this number has been fluctuated since Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2023).

The Foreign Relations Council said that the US has operated military facilities in 19 places in countries such as Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and UAE. Eight of the facilities are considered permanently.

Pro -Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria regularly attacked us on bases in the past. Last year, a drone initiated by an Iranian militia at a US base near the Syrian border at a US base in Jordan killed three US troops and wounded 47 people.

In addition, Iran’s Iran’s Iran -backed Houthis in Yemen in 2019 in Saudi Arabia in the striking oil infrastructure and the UAE in 2022 to the UAE, as Iran has a precedent to attack economic concerns of Iran’s allies.

Iran can also decide to close the Hormuz Strait, a vital passage that deals with one -fifth of world energy flows. In the meantime, Qatar shares the ownership of the South Pars/North Dome area in Iran, the world’s largest natural gas area, which was shot in Israel’s strikes last week.

“They certainly do not want to be caught in the middle of a wider conflict, or they do not want to be targeted by any party as in the past, El Harvard’s Gulf researcher Alham Fakhro, a Gulf researcher, said. The authority added that governments can pollute the natural resources they share with Iran because they are afraid of Fallout of a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Others are not sure how far the United States and Israel will go – whether Iran has crippled nuclear and missile programs or forcing them to change the regime – they are afraid of the disintegration of the Iranian state. In the first place, we saw that the overthrow of the Iraqi strong man Saddam Hussein, who released the anger of sectarianism in America, had swallowed in the bloody bed of Iraq and reinforced terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.

“The Gulf states of the Gulf states are not to see the collapse of Iran,” former Katari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Jassim Jaber Al Thani said, “The Gulf states of the Gulf states have collapsed. The Gulf called the decision -makers to önleme immediately stop this madness initiated by Israel ”.

“This war will also have deep repercussions for our region and perhaps the world,” he wrote. “Ultimately, Victor will not always be victorious, and those who disappear will never be defeated.”

Emirati Political Scientist Abdulla said that Israel is the biggest threat to instability in the region rather than Iran. As a result, Iran decreased. In the past, it can be based on the “resistance axis olan, a constellation of pro -threatening militias and governments in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to disappoint the plans of competitors. However, the last 20 -month fight, such as Hamas and Hezbollah Israel, saw crippled militant groups, while the United States suppressed Iraq militias.

Israel, on the other hand, continues to cause destruction in Gaza and plans to annex the West Bank. He also occupied areas in Syria.

“The empire is probably no longer. Okay, this is an opportunity. But the empire is not necessarily good for the stability of the region,” he said.

US Intelligence officials said Iran did not follow a nuclear bomb that contradicted Trump, who says the opposite, and that the intelligence evaluation experts quoted by the CNN this week are at least three years away from building bombs and strikes.

(For all his complaints about American interventions in the Middle East – and he claims that he was against the Iraq War twenty years ago – when Trump was asked by Radio Personality by Howard Stern Supported invader Iraq“Yes, I guess. I wish it was done right for the first time.” He replied.

If the US had now attacked Iran, it would probably strengthen its efforts to gather soldiers not only in Iran, but in other parts of the region.

This week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that regional threats are needed for deterrence, he said that his country’s medium and long -range missiles required to increase.

Erdogan, “Soon, we will reach a defense capacity that no one dare to challenge.” If you are not political, social, economic and military, you are deprived of deterrence and vulnerable, “he said. “We will raise our level of deterrence so much that they will not only attack us, but they will not even dare to think.”